Dry concern, wet hopes

Winter has been particularly dry this year, adversely affecting the sowing of crops...

Winter has been particularly dry this year, adversely affecting the sowing of crops, including wheat, pulses and oilseeds, in some parts of the country. Even as the Ministry of Agriculture is confident that the deficit would be made up in the next few days, there might be good news on the rain front as well. If forecasts are to be believed, the next week may see fairly heavy rains in the northern region up to the Indo-Gangetic plains as a result of western disturbances likely to enter from Pakistan around January 10.

The winter rainfall has been scant in most parts of the

country: east Rajasthan and north Madhya Pradesh (-97 per cent); west Uttar Pradesh (-95 per cent); west Rajasthan (-93 per cent) and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi (-92 per cent).

However, the forecasts available now suggest that the first spell of winter rain is likely over east Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh. However, there is still no indication of rain over central India, which requires irrigation more than the canal-fed north-western India.

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Meanwhile, continuing with last fortnight’s trend, wheat planting continued to lag, with farmers sowing 249.34 lakh hectares by the end of last week, compared with 263.31 lakh hectares covered during the corresponding period of last season and 279.84 lakh hectares for the whole of 2006-07. What gives the ministry some reason to cheer is that Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat have shown higher sowing. These states almost always have double the yield compared to other states and are expected to make good this shortfall.

The overall progressive Rabi pulses cultivation area has dipped from 124.32 lakh hectares to 121.32 lakh hectares. Rabi oilseeds, particularly rapeseed and mustard, are also showing less area. The area is 59.55 lakh hectares against last year’s 65.36 lakh hectares. “Some areas lag behind each year. There is no serious worry as yet. Winter temperatures have been ideal so far,” said P.K. Mishra, secretary, Ministry of Agriculture.

The rains, however, are eagerly awaited. This would be an extension of the stormy outbreak in northern and eastern Arabia, together with vast stretches of Iran starting early next week. This week, cold wave conditions are expected to continue over some of the Indo-Gangetic plains and north Rajasthan and isolated rain/snow is likely over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand from Friday. As winter rice sowing begins in southern states, rain is also forecast for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.