Exit polls give a `hung’ verdict

The ORG-MARG exit poll on TVI, however, predicted that the Congress was poised to emerge as the single largest party with 167 seats with the BJP coming second with 161 seats — the same number as in 1996.

Both exit polls were unanimous on one issue: That the UF would lose a substantial number of seats, largely because of the Janata Dal’s rout in Bihar, Karnataka andOrissa.

TVI gave only 208 seats to the BJP and its allies, which are banking on winning at least 230 seats, while the Development and Research Services (DRS) poll on Doordarshan indicated a steady march forward for the BJP.

The much-made-of Sonia factor, according to Doordarshan’s DRS survey, failed to improve the Congress’s sagging fortunes substantially. In some seats where she had campaigned, there had been an increase in the party’s vote share, in others there had been a decrease. TVI, on the other hand, said that the entry of Sonia Gandhi had led to a 0.4 per cent net gain for the Congress, resulting in the party winning six seats that it would otherwise have lost.

According to DD, the BJP and allies are expected to make big gains in Bihar, Orissa, Karnataka and Gujarat, improve their position in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and open account in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

In politically crucial Uttar Pradesh (85 seats), where the BJP’s stakes are highest, TVI forecastonly 48 seats for the BJP (four less than last time) and 29 for the Samajwadi Party (SP). DD, however, gave the BJP 58 seats (plus six), SP 17 (same as last time) and BSP only five. The Congress, which had won five seats in the last elections would get only three this time, according to DD.

The Kalyan Singh Government’s dismissal led to a 0.5 per cent swing in favour of the BJP, with protest votes resulting in two more seats, according to DD’s exit poll.

In Bihar (54 seats), both polls forecast a huge swing for the BJP-Samata Party combine. TVI’s prediction: 46 seats for the combine. According to DD, the BJP-Samata would win 36 seats, the RJD — 9, the JD — 2 and the Congress — 3. The split in the JD leading to the formation of the RJD has contributed substantially to the rise of the BJP-Samata, according to DD.In Andhra Pradesh, DD’s poll had the ruling Telugu Desam Party’s (TDP) tally going down by two seats to 15, the Congress retaining its 22 seats and the BJP making a substantial gain with fiveseats. In Maharashtra, where the Congress has got a new lease of life thanks to a strategic alliance with the SP and Republican Party of India (RPI), DD predicted 24 seats for the party – a gain of nine seats. The BJP-Shiv Sena is expected to lose nine seats, bringing their tally down to 24.

Gujarat, which is voting for both Lok Sabha and Assembly, is likely to go completely saffron. DD’s exit poll sees a BJP Government in the State and also 21 BJP MPs (5 up). The Congress is likely to suffer badly from the split in votes due to the failure of an alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP), and win only five seats (5 down). Shankersinh Vaghela’s RJP is expected to lose all seats.

In Rajasthan, where the BJP is in power, DD predicted a three-seat gain for the BJP (15 seats) and two less for the Congress (10). It also said that in Karnataka, the BJP would add 11 more seats, bringing its tally to 17 — largely at the cost of the JD, which is likely to win only two seats (minus 14), while the Congress ispoised to win nine.

In Assam, the AGP is likely to suffer a big loss, going by DD’s forecast, which has said the ruling party will win only two seats (5 down) while the BJP will get four and the Congress eight.