First among unequals

Meanwhile, only General (retd) Pervez Musharraf could have managed to get former foes to hug, kiss and make up, though neither is prepared to thank him for it as Musharraf prepares to write his own epitaph.

The prosaic question is: can the new government, whenever it gets its prime minister, deliver? Here is the list in no particular order and comprising only some broad points: terrorism; straightening the kinks in the Constitution; centre-province relations and power-sharing (with specific reference to Balochistan); the economy; price hike; power shortages; foreign policy, especially relations with the United States in the context of the war on terror; and last, but not the least, the army’s role in the polity.

None of this can be taken care of simply by having a parliament. Democracy is a necessary but not sufficient condition for tackling issues that have hung fire for long. In some cases, in the short run, it may actually hinder rather than facilitate important decisions.

But that’s not the popular sentiment right now. There’s much zest and it is good; it is also bad because when expectations go sour, and in this democracies are like love affairs transitioning to the boredom of a marriage, reactions can be disproportionate.

Let us consider the concrete steps the new government can take, or will have to. First on the agenda is the restoration of judges. The PPP wasn’t very keen on it but now that it has embraced the PMLN and accepted the 30-day deadline for a parliamentary resolution to that end, with the lawyers’ movement refusing to subside, the issue cannot be cold-storaged.

Restoring the judges also means deciding President Musharraf’s future, there being a symbiotic relationship between the two issues — unless the judges, after being restored, decide that given the personal dimension they will not adjudicate any case(s) concerning Musharraf or his position within the system.

For all the talk about probity and the spirit of the Constitution, that is unlikely to happen. This is how it goes then: if the judges return, Musharraf will most likely have to leave. The army could come to his rescue but will not. It has had enough of upfront politicking and needs respite — at least for now.

So what happens post-Musharraf? It would be a victory for constitutionalism. For once, a parliament will have refused to indemnify the illegal and unconstitutional actions of a general. That is a plus. Equally, for the legal-constitutional norm to become entrenched the political parties will have to restrain themselves from exploiting numbers to turn the Constitution into a putty.

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto did it; so did Nawaz Sharif. Going against the spirit and internal harmony of the Constitution democratically is worse than a dictator doing it undemocratically.

That done and said, what of the other problems on the list? Terrorism shan’t go away just because Pakistan has democracy. Recent attacks signal that. The issue is not just linked to internal security but also to two other crucial factors: the state’s writ and Pakistan’s relations with the US. A third factor is civil-military relations.

Will the secular ANP-PPP combine in the NWFP manage the threat more credibly? In theory, yes. There is much talk about the people’s will and introducing democracy in the troubled region. These are nice sentiments; unfortunately they are not shared by the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.

The degree of difficulty can be determined by the clear breakdown in the tribal traditions and ethos. New centres of power have emerged and old hierarchies have crumbled. Never before were jirgas or funeral processions attacked. The government will be dealing with a situation that may not lend itself to solutions based on old recipes and expectations. In this war, the adversary plays by only one rule: break all rules and norms to retain the element of surprise and operational effectiveness and prevent the other side from developing standard operating procedures to avoid loss and regain the upper hand.

What makes fighting it more difficult is the thought that this is not Pakistan’s war. If the Americans go away from Afghanistan this would stop; also Pakistan should pull the troops out of the tribal belt. Perhaps. But what would stop the Taliban from crossing over and attacking Afghan and international interests in Afghanistan; and how would the world react to that?

Popular sentiment brings to the fore the problem of state obligations on this issue since they are not regime-specific. How the government will square them with the people’s will remains to be seen.

The policy will also need to keep the army in the loop. And the role the army would like to play in terms both of formulating and implementing policy will determine the extent of effective civilian control of the military.

As if this is not enough: there are less sexy but more imminent issues of general price hike (including petroleum price) and power shortage. At the existential level, these are more troublesome than foreign policy. This is where the people’s will manifests itself through expectations that turn economic logic over its head and are the nightmare of economists and planners.

Here’s the gist: do I want to be the prime minister? Not for the next five years.

The writer is op-ed editor, Daily Times, and consulting editor, The Friday Times, Lahore. The views expressed are his own

sapper@dailytimes.com.pk