Flashpoint in Assam

It is a gamble, for the people of the Northeast are not exactly on friendly terms with the Army. Were the gambit to fail, it will be Mahanta’s head. But it is a worthwhile gambit nevertheless, for the situation in his state warrants the judicious use of force. Years ago, the government had gained the upper hand with a successful combing operation by the Army. And then, when it should have been consolidating its position with a political solution, it squandered its advantage by letting short-term political priorities dictate the course of events. As a result, today, the militants are again able to operate freely in Assam.

The ULFA has conducted a kidnapping operation that held national attention for weeks, and then probably ended it in a killing. Neither the Assam Government nor the Union Home Ministry has seen fit to respond to it. The latter contented itself with affable discussions on the foreigners issue with the AASU and Mahanta’s AGP. The Bodos have cut off the Northeast from the rest of the country so effectively that the prices of essential commodities are spiralling. Old rivalries have resurfaced and it is no longer just a case of `foreigners’ being attacked by the locals. The Bengalis now have the wherewithal to retaliate, compounding the problem further. In effect, the Mahanta Government’s writ has ceased to run in Assam and the situation calls for a combined initiative from the Centre and the state.

But again, were the Army to be deployed in Assam, can long-term gains be expected? Or will history repeat itself? The use of force is not a solution in itself. It has to be followed up with a meaningful political process. The Bodo Accord, which has patently failed, will need to be renegotiated. And the ULFA, which seems to have degenerated into a gang of petty extortionists, has to be excommunicated from the body politic. The government has the means for achieving this. What is required is the political will to set the process in motion, without regard for the petty considerations that have stymied it in the past and have ensured that the gains of Operation Rhino came to nothing. The government is aware that ULFA men operate all over the country, lobbying, networking or raising funds. Yet, it does nothing to curtail their movements.

Recently, two top ULFA leaders effortlessly left the country and surfaced at an international meet in Geneva. Interpol has expressed a deep and abiding interest in at least one of them. Yet, neither was the government able to stop them leaving, nor was it able to get them apprehended in Geneva. There is, obviously, no lack of information. But the will to act on it is sadly lacking. All parties interested in Assam ought to realise that without a lasting solution to insurgency, there will be no future for any of them in the state. No matter which of them happens to be in power, it is the militants who will be ruling in Assam.