• President Musharraf’s supporters are celebrating his sweep of the electoral college. How big really is his margin of victory?Yes, the proportions of his 252-2 win in the national assembly are pretty much reflected in the four provincial assemblies too. But these numbers can be misleading: legislators belonging to APDM, an opposition alliance led by Nawaz Sharif’s PML, had already resigned. And Benazir Bhutto’s PPP abstained.• Even so, the bottomline is that he’s won.Not yet. The Supreme Court on Friday restrained the Election Commission from notifying the result till October 17, when it resumes hearing on petitions seeking invalidation of his nomination papers, since he was still army chief when he sought re-election as President.• Why wasn’t the election simply postponed?Musharraf’s lawyers argued in court that Article 41 (6) of the Constitution bars it from changing the election schedule. • Does the PPP’s abstention mean it’s made common cause with the PML and MMA?Not really. Bhutto is keeping all her cards open. Given forecasts that his PMLQ will not retain its current majorities in the assemblies after fresh elections (which must be held by mid-January), he is clearly depending on the PPP for assistance in case his election has to be re-validated by the new assemblies. Hence, the ‘deal’ with the PPP, the first bit of which has been operationalised with an ordinance withdrawing cases against holders of public office between Jan 1, 1986 and Oct 12, 1999.• If he does get cleared by the court, will it be a weakened Musharraf?Certainly. A new troika will form: the next army chief’s name has already virtually been announced, and a non-PMLQ government would be less of an extension of his presidency.
