George, and some home truths behind Jaya’s volte face

While it is not known what assurances Fernandes gave to Jayalalitha, the BJP has in the past urged that the Indian Bank scam inquiry be expedited. The Sun TV issue is trickier since BJP would not want to be seen as attacking the DMK, a possible future ally. However, a way out could be to launch an investigation which would ease Jayalalitha’s pressure.

It is believed that Jaya changeed track as she saw theCongress was not interested in forming an alternative government at present.

Sources said that Jayalalitha had realised three things that her demand for dismissal of the DMK government was simply not feasible for the BJP-led government; that it was no good looking to the Congress for now; and that it would be more politic to continue her support and target her rivals while protecting herself vis-a-vis the cases against her.

At the Centre, there are only two cases against Jayalalitha and her aides. One is an income tax case against her, while the other is a FERA case on JJ TV involving Shashikala, Jayalalitha’s closest friend. Jayalalitha is said to be keen that the government help her out on both.

However, nearly 90 per cent of the corruption cases against Jayalalitha, which are far more serious, are in Tamil Nadu, filed against her by the state CID. It is speculated that the BJP might intercede with TN Chief Minister M Karunanidhi to at least soft pedal on the cases as well as tone down the level ofharassment.

Channels of communication between Karunanidhi and the BJP are open. It is pointed out that it would be in DMK’s interest to see that the Vajpayee government survives since his own government would be safer with the BJP at the Centre rather than the Congress.

A secret meeting in Chennai last week between Congressman R K Dhawan and petroleum minister V K Ramamurthy is believed to have forced Jayalalitha to change her stance towards the BJP government, even though she publicly kept up the pressure for a week. Dhawan explained that the Congress was not in favour of forming an alternative government just now. He highlighted three points. First, he said that the Congress was a national party and did not want to form a shaky coalition. It feared that the United Front would soon try to pull it down as the Congress did to two UF governments since 1996.

Second, that the Congress was not in a position to promise DMK’s dismissal. Third, that his party felt it would be wiser to wait for a few months andlet public opinion turn against Vajpayee government.