Groundnut crop prospects improve

Gujarat accounts for about 35 per cent of the country’s groundnut output."I expect a shortfall of about 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes of groundnut this winter," Srivastava said. "The situation of the groundnut crop in (the southern state of) Andhra Pradesh is normal." But trade officials expect the fall in output to exceed government estimates.

"I expect a groundnut crop shortage of more than one million tonnes," said Govindlal Patel, president of the Central Organisation for Oil Industryand Trade.

India produced about 6.5 million tonnes of groundnut in the last winter season from an area of about five million hectares.

The country annually harvests two oilseeds crops, getting the bulk of the output from the winter crop which is sown in June-July and harvested from October.

India receives about 80 per cent of its annual rainfall from the four-month monsoon season that starts in June. Indian weather forecasters had earlier said the country was on track for an eleventh consecutive normal monsoon, but the rainfall has been scanty after a good start.

Srivastava said the area under the soybean crop had fallen to about 5.7 million hectares from last year’s 6 million hectares because of late rains in the central state of Madhya Pradesh, which contributes about 80 per cent of India’s soybean output.

"Although the area has gone down, I expect the soybean productivity to rise by about 15 to 20 per cent," Srivastava said. "The crop has been healthy. There has been no pest attacks. Therefore,overall production may not get affected."

Some trade officials also shared the government’s optimism. "I also anticipate an improvement in the soybean yields," Harsh Maheswari, chairman of the Soybean Processors Association of India, said. "Fall in the area does not mean fall in the size of the crop." "There has been a sea change in the soybean crop prospects after the recent rains in the last week," Maheswari said, adding that SOPA would give a final estimate of the crop after two weeks.

Before the recent spell of rains, industry officials had estimated the winter soybean output to fall by about 15 to 20 per cent from last year’s output of 6.2 million tonnes.

Earlier, the oilseeds and edible oils trade urged the government to impose a three-tier import duty structure by reducing the duty on oilseeds and raising the duty on refined oils. "We should have an import duty of five per cent on refined edible oils, 15 per cent on raw edible oils and 25 per cent on oilseeds," Sandeep Bajoria, president of theSolvent Extractors’ Association of India..Bajoria, who took over as the association’s president on Sunday, said it was only in India where the import duty on raw materials was higher than that on refined oils.

India currently levies an import duty of 16.5 per cent onboth refined and unrefined edible oils, and 40 per cent on oilseeds.

Traders said the high duty on oilseeds had made its imports unviable and had instead led to a rush of edible oil imports.

India is expected to end the 1998/99 (November-October) oilyear with imports of about 4.5 million tonnes, sharply higher than last year’s imports of 2.08 million tonnes.

"How can the processing industry survive in such a situation," Bajoria said. "What we are asking is for a level-playing field.

According to trade estimates, India currently has an idle oil refining capacity of about 65 per cent.