Gujral puts diplomatic ties with Washington to the test

Twice in the past few months, high-level contacts between New Delhi and Washington have been thwarted due to political developments in India. On the first occasion in April this year, Foreign Minister IK Gujral had to call off his trip to Washington when the Gowda Government fell. This time around, Gujral had to cancel his trip to Kuala Lumpur for the ASEAN-ARF meet due to domestic crisis.

He was to have had discussions there with US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.

But the most visible sign of the incertitude wrought by the political dust-up is the uncertainty surrounding the proposed visit of President Clinton during India’s golden jubilee bash.

The White House has said visiting India remains “very high up on the President’s agenda”. But beyond that they are unwilling, or rather unable, to commit themselves.

“Political uncertainty is certainly a factor. That’s a good reason why he cannot go,” Dennis Kux, a former Ambassador and author of Estranged Democracies, a book on Indo-American ties, said. Kux said there was also a “lack of clarity” on what the program in India is going to be.

Sources say it is impossible for the administration to schedule a trip without any idea of the longevity of the Government. “These visits take months of preparation. They can’t schedule an October visit and find it upstaged by a general election,” one official said.

The charitable view taken by Indian officials is that President Clinton cannot embark on an India visit before finalising his China visit, due later this year. Chinese President Jiang Zemin is also slated to visit Washington. But the exchanges are under a cloud because of the campaign finance scandal involving Beijing. Analysts say this could have offered Washington an ideal opportunity to develop New Delhi as a counterweight to Beijing, but India’s domestic turmoil precludes any such move.

“A Government which is expending all its energy on mere survival cannot be expected to conduct foreign relations with any kind of finesse. India will have to ask itself what are the opportunity costs,” says Prof Steven Cohen, a South Asia expert.

Besides the Clinton visit, several other key trips are also on hold. Albright herself is keen on visiting India but is waiting for the dust to settle down. National Security Advisor Sandy Berger is also in line for a visit. And Commerce Secretary William Daley has actually announced that he will visit India later this year, but has scheduled no dates.

A top Indian diplomat said that for once, there was a visible desire among administration officials to engage India. “Unlike Warren Christopher, who expressed no interest or inclination to go to India whatsoever, Madeleine Albright wants to move. And the President’s visit will depend on her recommendation,” he said.

To add to the uncertainty, the South Asia bureau in the State Department has a new Assistant Secretary, while the US embassy in New Delhi is awaiting a new Ambassador following the departure of Frank Wisner.

Analysts say though foreign relations are the function of Governments and not individuals, exchanges are diluted if an individual is perceived being weak or a temporary stand-in.

As an example they say the then Prime Minister Deve Gowda’s Moscow visit would not have achieved as much as it could have potentially done, since he was forced out within weeks of his return. Analysts here also noted the cancellation of Defence Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav’s trip to Moscow this week. “There is definite loss of momentum from 1995, when things seemed to be on an upswing with a lot of important visits,” a key State Department official told this correspondent.