Failure begets many advisers. And after the Gujarat verdict, the Congress-led UPA government is in grave danger of allowing itself to be cordoned by far too much caution. For obvious, and possibly some unsubstantiated, reasons, there had been a sense all through December that the Gujarat result would set the time table for 2008. A Congress victory in Gujarat, it was believed, could advance the Lok Sabha elections to 2008, during the course of which the Congress would be in direct electoral combat with incumbent governments in states like Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. Already the party’s spokespersons are emphatic that general elections will be held in 2009. That is the ruling party’s call. It is answerable only to itself about when to call the general elections. However, as the party leading the coalition at the Centre, it is important for the Congress not to be seen by its llies as unable to call their bluff.The Left parties have already returned to issuing ultimatums to the UPA government to abandon the Indo-US nuclear deal. As explained in the editorial below, the calendar does not allow the government time to sit out decisions. It must either run with the processes and negotiations associated with the deal, or postpone them altogether. But this is a choice that has only been re-framed by the Gujarat verdict. Last month, the prime minister alluded to the difficulties posed before governments in doing “what is manifestly obvious”. Fractured mandates and competitive politics, he said, can sap the government of “unity of purpose”.In the coming year, politics will get much more competitive. The challenge before this government is to determine how to imbue its remaining tenure — still at least a year — with a unity of purpose. Will the government live from election to assembly election, carrying into each a wishfulness that good returns will bring the strength to withstand blackmail from allies? Or will it set for itself a more robust agenda of governance, using its momentum to keep the initiative in such a packed electoral calendar? The primary negotiations for this unity of purpose will have to be conducted between the Congress party and its government. The allies and parties offering external support are secondary.
