Hands full

The Dalits are 16 per cent of the population, the tribals about 20 per cent, the minorities together close to seven per cent with the OBCs and the upper castes making up the rest. The OBCs, the largest chunk of the population, are a collection of numerous castes that have never made common cause as in Bihar or UP.

Till these elections, the BJP was grounded in the upper castes, picking up enough OBC votes with the Hindutva plank to run the Congress close. The choice of Uma Bharati, a Lodhi OBC, and the rise of new OBC leaders such as Prahlad Patel and Shivraj Chauhan reflects a change in this traditional BJP strategy which ties the appeal of Hindutva to a larger support base.

The Dalits, concentrated in the areas bordering UP, are spread across the state. This gives them the ability to influence results in several segments but also limits the number of seats that can be won on their support alone. Till the rise of the BSP, the Congress had taken this vote for granted.

After a tacit understanding with the BSP, Chief Minister Digvijay Singh had broken the party in 1998, earning the ire of Phool Singh Baraiyya. Baraiyya has since put in a lot of work. Now instead of a party led by Baraiyya, fielding candidates in all 230 seats including Malwa, Digvijay faces a party split into the BSP and the SSP, with the BJP the main target of the BSP’s ire.

It is the tribal vote that is currently Digvijay’s biggest worry. The tribals are concentrated along the southern belt. In six of the districts, they constitute more than 50 per cent of the population and decide the electoral outcome. It is the backing of tribals that has ensured the dominance of the Congress.

But this is changing. The tribals are not a homogenous whole. Broadly, in the regions bordering Gujarat the Bhils and affiliated tribes dominate while elsewhere it is the Gonds that matter. As in Gujarat, the Sewa Bharti wing of the RSS has been active among the Bhils. Riding on the Ganesh visarjan and the installation of Hanuman idols, the BJP is building up a formidable presence.

In contrast, the GGP has begun a revivalist movement among the Gonds, marking it out against the Hindu and Christian norms. Over the past two years, the party has grown into an organisation that will threaten the Congress hold and wrest at least a few seats.

Over the past two years, Digvijay has set about implementing a land distribution programme as part of his Dalit Agenda. This agenda remains the one tangible programme for the Dalits that the party has actually implemented anywhere in the country.