Heads I lose, tails you win

I agree with Neerja Chowdhury’s assessment of the Congress dilemma in Kashmir (‘J&K: A tough choice for Sonia’, IE, September...

I agree with Neerja Chowdhury’s assessment of the Congress dilemma in Kashmir (‘J&K: A tough choice for Sonia’, IE, September 27). The question of transfer of the CM’s chair from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the Congress in November 2005, as per the October 26, 2002, power sharing agreement, has undoubtedly become a headache for her. Whatever decision Sonia Gandhi takes, the Congress is sure to lose.

There are Congress leaders who want the implementation of the power-sharing formula in letter and spirit. They insist state power must be transferred to a Congressman on November 2. Their argument is that the non-implementation of the power-sharing agreement will only dig the party’s grave in the Jammu region, which returned as many as 15 legislators in 2002.

Then there is a group of some influential Jammu and Valley-based Congress leaders who don’t want to disturb the Mufti-led coalition government. This group also enjoys the support of a number of high-ranking Congress leaders in New Delhi, who are of the view that if the Congress opts for chief ministership, it will also have to take the decision on downsising the ministry, which will be very difficult in J&K where the aspirations of the people of three regions are involved.

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Many Congress leaders at the Centre also feel that if the Congress takes the reins in J&K, it will only increase its liabilities at the national level. Votaries of this line argue that the present security scenario in the state and the current relationship between India and Pakistan demand the continuation of the Mufti as CM. And that replacing him now would derail the peace process. Yet another group of Congress leaders wants the implementation of the power-sharing agreement, but the CM’s office must go to a Kashmir-based Congress leader. Those belonging to this group argue that the transfer of the office of CM from a Kashmiri politician to a Jammu leader would not be taken kindly by the Kashmiris. They argue that it is a priceless opportunity for the party to consolidate its base in the Valley.

The contradictory stands of the Congress leaders on the changeover is only one of the major problems the Congress high command is grappling with. The other is the views of the PDP, even though the Mufti has reiterated that he would quit the day he completes three years in office.

It is obvious that the issue of change-over has become quite troublesome given the sensitivities involved, and given what many see as the sharp contradictions in the perceptions between the those in the Valley and those in Jammu. If Sonia Gandhi decides to go with those who want a Jammu leader to take over from the Mufti, the party loses face in Kashmir. If she goes by those favouring a Valley leader, the party risks unpopularity in Jammu. And if she allows the Mufti to continue for another three years, her party might suffer political losses in J&K.