Hillary could still win, but it would bruise Democrats

To listen to some of the discussion about the Democratic presidential contest these days, one would think that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton...

To listen to some of the discussion about the Democratic presidential contest these days, one would think that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton should have spent Easter weekend in Chappaqua, writing her withdrawal speech and preparing for her return to the Senate.

Make no mistake about it; Clinton’s task in trying to overtake Senator Barack Obama of Illinois is daunting. And it grew even tougher last week, when the collapse of efforts to redo the Florida and Michigan primaries almost certainly ended her hope of narrowing Obama’s lead in pledged delegates and of being able to claim a majority of the popular vote when the voting is done.

But it’s still not impossible. There remains at least one scenario where Clinton could win. It is an increasingly unlikely one and one that could traumatise the Democratic Party. Still, it gives succour to her supporters, and presumably Clinton herself, and is something to keep in mind watching the two of them head toward the endgame of their contest.

Story continues below this ad

The electorate that matters most now are not the voters waiting to go to the polls in the 10 nominating contests that remain between now and June. Instead, it is the superdelegates— the elected officials and party leaders who have automatic status as uncommitted delegates and whose votes are needed to put either Obama or Clinton over the top. There are about 800 of them, and they are going be weighing two main arguments: Obama’s contention that the Democratic rank-and-file has expressed its will and superdelegates shouldn’t overturn it, and Clinton’s brief that she offers the party the best chance to defeat Senator John McCain this fall.

Obama’s side of the argument has become almost unassailable, while Clinton’s is, at the least, open to debate. Clinton’s best hope now is that Obama, as a candidate, suffers a political collapse akin to what has happened to the subprime mortgage market, a view shared by aides in both campaigns.

How could that happen? First of all, Clinton not only has to win Pennsylvania on April 22, she has to swamp Obama there. And she has to go on and post a convincing win against Obama in Indiana, a state where the two appear evenly matched. Along the same lines,

Clinton would get some wind if she trounces Obama in the June 3 contest in Puerto Rico.