Himachal will not be Gujarat

In fact, Himachal Pradesh was one of the most peaceful states in the wake of post-Ayodhya violence. Even the burning of the train at Godhra did not evoke any reaction. Credit must go to its state leaders who made no attempt to whip up communal tensions and certainly to its people who let sanity prevail under the most trying circumstances.

Thus even as Narendra Modi had embarked on a Gaurav Yatra during the run-up to the assembly elections in Gujarat, the Himachal Pradesh chief minister P.K. Dhumal undertook a ‘Vikas Yatra’. He also proposes to flag off a ‘Vishwas Yatra’ later this month. After a string of defeats in various other states, the recent victory in Gujarat is undoubtedly a morale booster for BJP workers in Himachal but they don’t expect votes on the Hindutva card.

Yet the BJP has a strong vote bank in Himachal. It enjoys an absolute majority in the 68-member state assembly in alliance with the Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC). In the last election it secured 39.03 per cent of valid votes and bagged 33 seats in the current assembly. Even in 1993, when it got just eight seats, the party had claimed a vote share of 33.8 per cent.

However, although the BJP has built up good support bases across the state the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Bajrang Dal have little influence in society.

Over the years, a virtual two-party system has evolved in the state even though the HVC and the Janata Dal have a few pockets of influence. The general trend has been Congress making way for BJP and vice versa except in 1993 when mid-term elections were held. The previous Congress government, led by Virbhadra Singh had taken the calculated risk of asking for dissolution of the assembly about a year ahead of its tenure. The voters delivered a split verdict and though Singh made an effort to form the government with the help of an independent, he had to step down within a month thus paving the way for the Dhumal government to take control.

Congress and BJP face a direct face-off in the forthcoming polls. Sukh Ram’s Himachal Vikas Congress has also declared that it will contest all seats but it is unlikely to make any substantial difference except in more than half a dozen constituencies. As the incumbent government, the BJP is fighting with its back to the wall and it will require a herculean effort for the party to retain power.

Besides issues of development and employment and growth, the two main contenders are weakened by dissidence at the top level. Former chief minister Shanta Kumar, who is now a union minister, has not reconciled to his ouster from state politics. He had been openly criticising the Dhumal government and was particularly shrill in his criticism over, what he perceived, the state BJP government’s alleged manipulation in presenting the state’s case to the Delimitation Commission. This is because if the Commission had accepted the recommendations, Shanta Kumar’s Sulah constituency would have been abolished. The Commission was on the verge of declaring its recommendations but was recently asked by the Election Commission to defer its announcement.

Congress too is a divided house. Former chief minister Virbhadra Singh, who is the CLP leader, and HPCC chief Vidya Stokes are at daggers drawn. The Virbhadra camp is apprehensive that Vidya Stokes will make a bid for chief ministership if the Congress wrests power in the state while the supporters of the latter say there can be no doubt that she would lead the government if voted to power. The two have not been sharing the stage except on occasions when Sonia Gandhi visits the state.

The local factors in Himachal Pradesh are such that Congress and BJP are poised for an even contest and it is doubtful if Gujarat’s Hindutva wave will be replicated in this state.