How the script of diplomatic victory in Singapore was written

The first success came when the joint communique issued after the ASEAN Ministerial meeting on July 24 welcomed the agreement reached by India and Pakistan to end hostilities along the LoC and urged both sides to resolve the dispute through dialogue.

When US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright emphasised the importance of Pakistan withdrawing from the remaining positions along the Kargil sector, she was echoing what New Delhi has been asking Pakistan to do. During his bilateral meetingwith Jaswant Singh, Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan too reiterated his stand that the two resolve all issues, including J&K, through peaceful negotiations and within the framework of the Lahore process.

Later, the chairman of the ARF in his statement, which reflected the overall perspective of the deliberations, too expressed support for the Lahore process. “This may help the Government ward off criticism at home about having taken the Lahore bus ride when Pakistan may have been planning the Kargil excursion,”said an Indian diplomat.

A US official explained that Pakistan’s action, whatever its compulsions may have been, was out of sync with the world view at a point when the spectre of nuclear weapons is looming large. “Even in the South China Sea area, where difference between nation states galore over different issues including Spratley Islands, there is increasing realisation for some kind of a code of conduct to forestall brash actions,” he added.

Perhaps the most profuse support to theIndian stand came from a rather unexpected quarter — the European Union (EU). On its behalf, the Foreign Minister of Finland asked both India and Pakistan to respect the inviolability of the LoC, prevent any infiltration across it and work together to end external support to militants in Kashmir. “It was as if the script had been written in the Indian Foreign office. This reflects positively on the world view of India’s position,” an Indian official said.

The consensus on the need to take effective steps against illegal small arms and trans-border terrorism is significant for India, which is bearing the brunt of this in Kashmir and other areas.

How did this diplomatic coup come about for India, while just a year ago during the last meeting of the ARF at Manila, it faced some isolation following the Pokharan blasts? Officials explain that while Pakistan’s decision to follow up with nuclear tests limited the diplomatic fallout of the Indian action, its misadventure in Kargil helped shift focus from theissue — at least for now — and put Pakistan in a different category. “It showed that India’s was not a disturbing theology and its actions were, in fact, a stabilising factor in the region,” claimed Jaswant Singh.

As for relations with US which are clearly on the mend, officials attribute it mainly to the eight round of talks Jaswant Singh and Indian officials had with Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott. “These helped the US put Indian compulsions and security concerns in perspective,” said an official who was associated with most of the meetings.

The US offer to India to join the proposed organisation of “community of democracies” recognises the strength of the Indian democracy, despite the continuing political instability in India. The Chinese stand vis-a-vis India, which has also undergone a change, could be due to its own security and diplomatic compulsions in the region. It finds itself in a bind over the Taiwanese President’s statement of one-to-one relations with China, throwingspanners in the One China’ theory. In the face of this, it is extremely wary of the defence pact between US and Japan. Its relations with the US after the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade are on a new low. Similarly, in the South China Sea, it is among the countries claiming sovereignty over Spratley Islands. At the ARF, China spoke against foreign interference in the internal affairs of countries and in his meeting with Jaswant Singh, the Chinese foreign minister sought cooperation in regional and international fields.

In fact, India’s stand was vindicated even on issues like Kosovo and the proposed move on having South-East Asia as a nuclear weapons-free zone.

But, it would be premature to gloat over the success. There are serious problem areas, including the border dispute with China. And if disarmament did not figure at Singapore prominently, it is because the focus was more on other pressing issues like Taiwan and Spratley Islands. It is significant that a majority of the foreignministers of ASEAN and ARF wanted all countries to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Jaswant Singh has declared that the NPT is a no-entry’ zone for India and that only a new government would be able to decide on signing the CTBT. “While we have bought time till the elections, the heat will be on again on the new Government, which will need to devise a credible strategy,” confided an official.

On Kashmir and human rights, Jaswant Singh is right when he says that in the face of the kind of Pak-backed terrorism India is facing in Kashmir, the human rights record of our security forces is second to none. But till Kashmir continues to simmer with dissatisfaction, and outside international agencies like Amnesty International are not allowed to see thing for themselves, India’s stand will continue to be viewed with scepticism.

With the UN being unwieldy and strategic military alliances being scoffed at, the ARF is emerging as a diverse yet importantgathering of nations. With much diplomatic headway been made at Singapore, the new Government in Delhi will be poised for a meaningful, though a difficult role.