If the rain gods don’t smile…

I went to the rain shadow region of the Sahyadris. Among others villages, I visited Kolhar—a large settlement, around a 100 km from the Bhandardara dam. The Godavari originates from Trumbekeshwar and many of the smaller rivers here—the Mula, the Pravara and others—flow into it. For example, the Pravara Sangam is around 42 km north of Aurangabad. Further down, the Wainganga flows into the Godavari. There is enough water here and therefore—touchwood!—no disagreements between Maharashtra and Andhra over the resource. The Telugus are now dreaming of their big diversion schemes more to the south.

The area I went to, however, is dry territory and rainfall failure is still a matter of great concern. With years of poor rain, the rivers and streams have all shrivelled up. This is a sure sign that rainfall levels are going down, although the met boys say there is nothing unusual about this.

I suspect what has happened is that the demand has gone up. This is traditional cooperative territory and, as the level of development rises, the pressure on water gets greater. It is quite clear that from the dams on the tributaries of the Godavari in this region, the water that was earlier available for irrigation has to now be saved for drinking purposes. This is an area where the storage of water, harvesting and groundwater extraction through both open wells and deep tubewells is high.

All the tricks of the trade have been tried and now the pressure over water scarcity is high. Rainfall failure for three years is bad news for many. I ask them why don’t we line the canals, for the tailenders don’t get anything. But that will make the groundwater story worse.

Here conjunctive use is old hat. It is also not true that they keep on growing cane. The cane crop in many areas was dead anyway and was being cut for fodder. In some, they will perhaps save it with tillaring if the rains are good. The region is apprehensive. The signals from the rain gods are not good. This is the spiritual command area of the Shirdi Saint and, by the end, I am also praying for rain. July will determine the outcome.

It is not true that the farmers here grow only highly water intensive crops. That may have been the case in the eighties but by now they have diversified. If you don’t have assured water you grow soya and, in the winter, durham wheat, which fetches a good price because of its quality. Cotton and tobacco, popular some years ago, are now gone.

The state doesn’t help any more. Some of the area is under vegetables and a few farmers have the resources to grow fruits and tree crops. Almost all of them have cows and milk can account for up to two-fifths of the income level. But costs are going up and the price of milk is not rising. For the last many years, it has remained at Rs 7 a litre. Why the demand for milk, which was rising for over two decades, is now stagnating beats me. There are a large number of private dairies here and the milk collection system built up over the years still works.

Rainfall failure does matter. This is not territory where there is large scale hunger. If a woman is a widow, she still will get work and if she can’t work, her community and the village will look after her. But if the rains failed as they did in the last few years, the output of soya can be as low as five quintals per acre. If, however, the rain gods smile, it can be nine quintals. Soya does not need much water, but it does need some water.

We sit down and work out that with the rabi effect, income levels can go down up to 40 per cent, which is saying a lot. Dutta Patil Shirshat is polite, but very firm on the facts . The other Patils—Dattatriya, Deepak and Sopan among others—are more articulate. The difficulty is that no one is really sure of the next stage of growth.

I promise to send them the modalities draft of the Agreement on Agriculture of Stuart Harbinson, which India will negotiate at Cancun. They want the interest of crops from the rainfed regions to be kept in mind, for agriculture is not just rice and wheat. Bhaskar Gaikwad has promised to download the text and translate it into Marathi. There is interest in the internet and in local oraganisations linking up with markets and inputs.

Somebody tells them that I am responsible for the fertiliser subsidy being phased out and we discuss the possibilities of a fertiliser industry and trade which meet their real needs effectively. But it seems a long way off.