In a flap

Lakhs of birds have been killed in West Bengal and Bangladesh after public health officials confirmed fears of the dangerous H5N1 strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza. India had been declared bird-flu free by the WHO after last year’s outbreaks in Manipur and Maharashtra but the recent outbreaks prove that the threat is still alive. So far, starting with Southeast Asia and moving on to Europe and Africa, 60 countries have been affected by bird flu. At present, H5N1 is mostly transmitted from bird to bird, and rarely from birds to human beings. India has not reported any human cases so far, but that does not mean we can afford complacency. Because it’s not just a big flap over an issue that seems to mainly concern waterfowl and poultry — these sporadic outbreaks, if not contained, could plunge us into a potential public health emergency.

Epidemiologists and policymakers have long been in fear of a major outbreak of influenza. If, for instance, this strain of bird flu mutates into a form that could spread from person to person, it could be a reprisal of the ‘Spanish flu’ that wiped out nearly 50 million people in 1918, and had its origins in a strain of bird flu. The currently circulating bird flu is not like the 1918 pandemic strain. On the other hand, that type of influenza needed to mutate only a handful of RNA nucleotides to take on a humanly contagious form. This mutation is the very worst-case scenario — and with our densely populated cities and air travel, a lethal flu strain could spread all over the planet in a matter of days. Even though governments all over the world have invested in research and stocking up on anti-virals, our preparedness is limited by the fact that we don’t know exactly what this potentially lethal human virus could look like.

Of course, the mutation has not occurred so far, and the WHO maintains that there is no evidence of sustained spread from person to person. But this doomsday scenario is frightening enough for us to take any outbreak of bird flu with utmost seriousness.