In Troubled of Waters

Over the past two years, Indonesia has suffered an encyclopedia of troubles, from the devastating tsunami of December 2004 to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, droughts, outbreaks of bird flu, landslides, airline crashes and a vast, bizarre geyser of mud — a constant pounding of catastrophes that has worn down the national psyche and convinced many that something supernatural is going on.

“Since the day he took office there have been unending disasters,” said Permadi, a member of Parliament and a mystic, of the President. Yudhoyono was born under a bad sign, he said, and nature is demonstrating its anger at him and the nation.

But the flood that at one point inundated up to 70 per cent of the city is traceable to more tangible problems, many here say. It exposes the limitations and dangers of Indonesia’s aging infrastructure. And it demonstrates the growing pains of a democratic transformation that could produce more responsive governments.

To begin with, this port city of 43 lakes and 13 rivers that lies partly below sea level still relies on flood canals and sluice gates that were built by the Dutch 160 years ago. The clearing of trees on nearby hillsides has removed a natural check on flooding, while the housing developments that have replaced them have put a further strain on public works.

This uneven development is an example of the central problem of Indonesian infrastructure, said Ramesh Subramaniam, principal economist at the Asian Development Bank in Indonesia. “It is essentially a conflict between private consumption, which is going up, and public investment in infrastructure, which is almost stagnant,” he said.

As the economy grows at about 6 per cent a year, with a proliferation of homes, offices and shopping centres, almost no new roads, bridges, airports, power lines or water systems have been built since the Asian economic crisis a decade ago. All these factors contribute to breakdowns in urban services and to disasters like the flood.

“There is no question that the economy is growing now at a healthy clip,” said Douglas E. Ramage, the country representative of the Asia Foundation. “But the growth is going to bump smack up against infrastructure limitations.”

Because of complex regulations and legal uncertainties, there has been very little foreign investment in infrastructure in recent years. Two conferences in the past two years that offered nearly 100 projects to foreign investors produced no contracts.

“China has built more roads in the last year than Indonesia in the last 20 years,” said Jim Castle, chief executive of CastleAsia, a consultancy and research firm. “I think they have installed more telephones in six months than Indonesia has installed in 10 years.”

Attempts to overcome this problem, and to become more responsive to disasters like the flood, have been complicated as Indonesia reconfigures its democratic system. It is dispersing power from the center to local governments and instituting direct elections of government officials.

With weaker central control, different levels of government and different jurisdictions can now find themselves at odds. Trees are cut down and housing developments are built without coordination on Jakarta’s outskirts. And when a disaster strikes, the response is often uncoordinated and, as a result, chaotic.

–SETH MYDANS