In UP, the Rahul effect

Yes, Jaipal Reddy, Kapil Sibal, Abhishek Singhvi, Ashwini Kumar, Anand Sharma, supervised by Ambika Soni, made for credible studio appearance. But most of them admitted, privately, that if there were any strategic gameplans for the elections, they were lodged inside the heads of Sonia Gandhi or Ambika Soni. The corporate world saw Sonia Gandhi’s role as one of stabilising the status quo which had been good for business all around.

In other words, the Congress, under her stewardship, would win anywhere between 100 to 150 seats, ensuring for it the status of the second largest party, conferring on her the comfortable title of leader of opposition. No prospective coalition partner would work under her (foreign origin!); she would be loathe to work under any regional leader. Embedded in this kind of logic was the inevitability of the NDA returning under Vajpayee’s leadership even if, God forbid, there was a shortfall in numbers.

But would not the Congress, accustomed to power at the Centre for 45 years, get a little restless marking time around 10 Janpath? Was 7 Race Course Road beyond its ability or aspiration? Yes, prime ministership would elude the Congress so long as Sonia Gandhi remained the only Congress candidate for that job. However inelegant it may sound, the Indian establishment will never be able to erase from its mind the question of her foreign origin.

Inexplicably late in the day, the fact does appear to have registered with Sonia Gandhi. This led to her statement in February: “Prime ministership is not our priority at the moment.” Fine. But at which “moment” will it become your priority again? The issue was fudged, never settled.

By March, the Congress president was sending out signals that, her social shyness notwithstanding, she was eager to come out of her shell and connect with people outside, including journalists. She was asked: What is your priority — to defeat the NDA or come to power yourself? There is a distinction and the two objectives dictate different approaches. If, indeed, she had had enough of the BJP/NDA, she had to spell it out loud and clear, invite a grand coalition on this agenda and delete her name from the list of prime ministerial candidates. Tepid non-statements — “it is not our priority at the moment” — would not do.

Then, every now and then, Priyanka and Rahul made an appearance and the nation’s oldest party could not decide whether they were in the political fray or not. “They are mature enough to make up their own minds,” Sonia Gandhi would say. It was not a personal, family matter. It was a political decision for the party president to take.

This was the state of affairs even as April was upon us. Electioneering had gathered momentum. Coalitions had been hurriedly sewn up in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. But UP remained a yawning gap.

Above everything else, the question mark on the Gandhi Parivar’s intentions remained. Against this backdrop, for the umpteenth time in electoral history, the Muslim vote came to be wooed by all, particularly in UP, the arena for ultimate battle. The Muslim did not know which way to turn: Mulayam Singh, Mayawati or Vajpayee? The Congress was not in the reckoning. It was too weak in the state. Nationally, it did not look like a party that could make a bid for power. Sonia Gandhi would have to be out of the prime ministerial race before it could be acceptable to a wider coalition.

The Muslim suspected both Mayawati and Mulayam of striking possible bargains with the BJP. Paradoxically, Vajpayee’s soft line had diluted the traditional anti-BJPism. The ground realities dictated that the Muslim vote travel in all directions with differing emphases.

Then something changed. Rahul Gandhi’s nomination from Amethi, the surge for him in Varanasi, Priyanka’s entry in the campaign — all amplified a hundred fold by the electronic media — changed the atmosphere. How real this change is only the results will prove. Exit polls have further added to the BJP’s anxieties. Just imagine if the Gandhi siblings had been fielded a year ago!

They’ve entered the fray too late to alter the Congress tally much. But the change in the general climate will impact the Muslim vote. The appearance of the Gandhi siblings and exit polls have introduced a degree of mobility in the political picture in New Delhi. The scene is no longer static.

An awareness among the voters that change in New Delhi is not impossible was transparent throughout my drive through western UP, particularly Rohilkhand. Take Bareilly, for instance. The BJP candidate is Santosh Gangwar, three-term MP with a happy record in the constituency. He is challenged by Akbar Ahmad “Dumpy” on the BSP ticket. Mayawati’s classical Dalit plus Muslim combination is in operation. To this “Dumpy” has added an anti-Kurmi mobilisation. (Gangwar is a Kurmi). Mulayam has fielded Islam Sabir to cut BSP’s Muslim support. Normally, the Muslim vote would have gone listlessly in all directions. But with the change in the atmosphere the voter has been energised to contemplate tactical voting in Dumpy’s favour who is uttering not a word against Congress candidate Praveen Singh Airon.

Is there a sense that a larger coalition around the Congress has a chance in New Delhi? Pravez Haneef, an advocate working for the Congress in Pilibhit, sums it up: “It is too late in the day to replace the NDA. But in the light of changes visible in the last two weeks, the Congress will be in the reckoning for the 15th Lok Sabha.”

Meanwhile SP candidates are asking for Muslims votes (among others) so that their “leader”, Mulayam, can be sent to New Delhi as prime minister.