Incompatible parties

with the Left did not amount to much as Communist influence is limited to certain pockets in the State. As regards the Janata Dal, most of its cadres had in any case been appropriated by his own party. Thus to have a decisive edge over the BJP in any future contest, he reckoned that he must forge an electoral understanding with the Congress. After all the only time he squarely defeated the BJP was when he had an alliance with the BSP. Even from his short-term point of view, a tie-up with the Congress makes sense.

For instance, the only party that supported his candidature for the leadership of the United Front after Deve Gowda was voted out of power was the CPI(M). That he could have made it to the top post if he had the backing of the Congress cannot be disputed. Notwithstanding the simplicity of such calculations, there are certain imponderables Yadav will have to contend with. For the Samajwadi Party cadres, who are steeped in anti-Congressism of the Lohia variety, it is not very easy to treat the Congress as an ally. As regards the Congress, particularly its U.P. unit, it will be a negation of all it stood for if it is now forced to find virtue in the SP. This will only drive the upper castes in the Congress to the BJP. In fact, at one point of time, the Congressmen in U.P. were even prepared to go it alone if their national leadership was prepared to join hands with Yadav. But the fact that the Congress was forced by sheer necessity to extend support to the United Front has brought about a radical change in the whole situation.

As Yadav puts it, anti-Congressism has lost its relevance. It is a different matter that his Communist allies, who have their own electoral interests to subserve in Kerala and West Bengal, will never admit this fact. Even so an alliance between the SP and the Congress is unlikely to set the Gomti on fire.

Today the greatest asset of the Samajwadi Party is the committed support it has of the Yadavs and the Muslims. The reason why the Muslims migrated almost en masse from the Congress to the SP is their belief that the Congress did nothing to protect Babri Masjid. Despite the change of guard in the Congress, the alienation of the Muslims from that party has not yet ended. Wherever they have had a choice, the Muslims have invariably voted against the Congress. Thus when a large section of the Muslims still consider the Congress as communal, any truck with the party can prove costly to Yadav, more so as Mayawati has been relentlessly wooing them. In essence an alliance with the Congress is a gamble for the Samajwadi Party.