From the time I heard about the disaster I have been thinking about what India’s response should be. I have spoken to several friends who are knowlegeable on the subject. But even to someone who has studied oceanography for years and headed so many Government departments, I have not yet been able to comprehend fully what should be done.To build up a tsunami prediction network for the Indian Ocean will be a gigantic effort. The cost, in my view, will run into thousands of crores. I have read the announcement made by Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal. It is a good thing, but I feel we should have a series of meetings in the country first and chalk out a plan which is within our means.The Indian Ocean is vast. Instead of committing a lot of money very quickly, we should identify a good starting point. India should invite world experts on tsunami, who must tell us why this has happened here and whether it can be repeated. Only then should we take action.What has happened will sadden the country for months — so many innocent lives have been lost. As of now, even the vulnerable areas are not known. After Sumatra, how can we predict where a tsunami will start from?We should explore the possibility of linking the system with the Pacific Ocean. We will have to see how many places will have to be linked, what sort of information technology will have to be put in place. But the question which will confront us soon will be: what will be the cost of predicting something which happens once in a century?What we must do immediately is have an interaction with all those countries which have an existing network and see how they can help us. We should ask them to identify vulnerable areas in the Indian Ocean. We should learn from their experience and then set up some basic infrastructure. After all, we do have preparedness for storms and cyclones in the region, but how adequate is it? Look at Bangladesh, they are affected by this every year.What we need is interaction among knowledgeable people in India and interlinkage with countries which have been facing tsunamis for hundreds of years and have developed some control over it. Based on this interaction we should set up some infrastructure. After all, we cannot build shelters for 25-ft high waves to cover hundreds of kilometers of land.Tsunamis are a very well-known phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, but even there they are not of this intensity or magnitude. They have been facing tsunamis for hundreds of years and have put up warning links which also give only a few hours forecast. In those few hours a lot can be done.Even land earthquakes cannot be precisely predicted. It is only storms, hurricanes and cyclones which can be predicted days in advance.(The author is former secretary, Ocean Development; Member, Planning Commission (Science); presently Vice-Chairman, Society for Indian Ocean Studies)(As told to Ritu Sarin)
