Inflated confusion

On Tuesday, when the RBI left key rates unchanged, it was falling into a by now laid-out pattern. In nearly four years of UPA rule, one version of it has gone like this: the Congress government goes after inflation with a sledgehammer, and hurts the aam aadmi it swears by, but refuses to see. In its frantic bid to moderate inflation, it allows interest to go up for the average Indian on credit. But of course, we know that the Congress does not deem ordinary folk burdened by brutal EMIs in India’s cities as the aam aadmi; for the party, he can only live among the rural poor. But — and this is the twist in the tale — while the party is alienating the aspiring classes in urban India by its policies, it is not helping the rural poor either, whose troubles in the present context have more to do with food inflation which cannot be addressed by monetary policies anyway. If you factor in the fact that the UPA’s unexpected Lok Sabha victory in 2004 was powered by the urban voter, the writing on the wall is clear: the Congress is confused on both economics and politics.

Three questions sum up this Congress muddle: One, who is the Congress voter? In 2004, the Congress or UPA allies swept all the main urban centres. Of the estimated 74 constituencies designated as urban, the UPA won 34 while the NDA got 21, upsetting the reigning common sense that the BJP is unbeatable in urban constituencies. Two, who is the aam aadmi? By all accounts, the Congress has not caught up with the changes in an aspirational and rapidly urbanising society. India’s growth story has made it urgent to rethink old definitions and oppositions: rural-urban, middle class and upper class, rich and poor. The average urban citizen who must pay more and more for private education and health care, while grappling with poor power and water supply, is also the aam aadmi today. Finally: how can the really poor be really helped? Here, the Congress seems to think that being pro-poor requires nothing more than being seen to be anti-rich.

Meanwhile, if statements at the National Council meet are any indication, the BJP is for once getting its act together. Among the reiterations of its pet Hindutva issues, party president Rajnath Singh talked of the EMI-paying people, struggling with rising loan rates. Time is running out for the Congress. There will be a price to pay if it does not urgently awaken to the fact that India is changing and its political and economic thinking needs to change with it.