Islamists’ political setbacks not without subtlety in Pakistan

Her group’s offices were bombed. Her fieldworkers were kidnapped at gunpoint. Her schools were attacked. Her life was threatened so many times she lost count. On Monday, in a continuation of the violence, four staffers of an organisation that helps mothers and children in impoverished northwest Pakistan were shot dead by militants.

Voters across Pakistan turned against the Islamists. Here, they tossed out the governing religious alliance and handed control to a secular party. At the same time, though, analysts warned that it would be a mistake to interpret the election results as a sign that Pakistanis are ready to support an intensified military campaign sought by the US against pro-Taliban and al-Qaeda-linked groups.

More than at any time since before the September 11, 2001, attacks on the US, militant organisations have sunk deep roots in Pakistan’s semi-autonomous tribal areas. In recent months, they have pushed outward into so-called “settled” areas under control of the Pakistan’s central government, some of them only a few miles from the provincial capital, Peshawar. To many Pakistanis, the armed confrontation with Islamic radicals remains “America’s war,” one whose cost in blood has been borne by Pakistani troops with little perceived benefit.

Pakistan’s role in President Bush’s “war on terror” was a significant factor in a separate outpouring of voter fury last week against President Pervez Musharraf, who is seen as far too willing to do the military bidding of the United States.

“Not wanting the Islamists to be in charge of governmental affairs is not the same thing as supporting a US-backed war against the militants, not at all,” said Khalid Aziz, a former provincial chief secretary who is now a Peshawar-based analyst.

Recent public opinion surveys bear out that sentiment. A poll by the International Republican Institute released shortly before the election indicated that although public support for groups such as the Taliban had fallen sharply, 89 per cent of respondents did not believe that Pakistan should support a US-led campaign against Islamic extremists.