It’s now Mulayam & his maths

To make sense of Uttar Pradesh’s politics of the absurd, you need to re-learn a few basics — like arithmetic for instance, and the...

To make sense of Uttar Pradesh’s politics of the absurd, you need to re-learn a few basics — like arithmetic for instance, and the nuances of language, and that for every simple question there is more than one straight answer.

As Mayawati dramatically resigned this rainless monsoon afternoon and leaders of the ‘secular front’ distributed sweets and cashewnuts in premature celebration and the BJP leadership in Delhi maintained an enigmatic ‘let-the-governor-decide’ stance, the questions mounted. And the answers mounted even higher.

First question: why did Mayawati resign? Her answer: because at least 40 BJP MLAs were going to cross over and bring her government down and the BJP leadership was doing nothing about it. Therefore, to uphold ‘morality’ and ‘principled politics’ she would rather face elections and give UP a ‘stable’ government and not allow ‘horse-trading’ to sully the reputation of the fair state.

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BJP’s answer: She abused the ‘dharma’ of coalition politics, humiliated BJP leaders, was dictatorial to the extreme, and corrupt to boot. With the Supreme Court directing the course of the CBI enquiry into the Taj corridor case, she was afraid of being indicted and the resignation was a pre-emptive move.

A Congress leader’s take: The BJP and BSP were never made for each other. They have completely different vote banks, contradictory ideologies. They stuck it out for the sake of power but BJP realised that Mayawati was eroding its own upper-caste base and a declining BJP was proving a liability to the BSP. The Taj just provided a backdrop — not for undying love but a bitter divorce.

Second question: When did the end begin? Again, three answers — after Mayawati was forced to eat humble pie over her demand for Jagmohan’s ouster; or after Mayawati warned Lalji Tandon three weeks ago that 32 BJP MLAs were on the verge of crossing over; or (this from the Opposition) ever since Ajit Singh withdrew support and joined hands with Mulayam & co, heralding the ‘realignment’ of forces in the UP assembly.

Third question: What is going to happen now? The easy answer — Governor Vishnu Kant Shastri will decide. But what exactly are his options? The opposition is convinced that since Mayawati has resigned (and even requested that she not be kept on as caretaker CM) and no one else is staking a claim, the governor has no choice but to ask Mulayam Singh Yadav to form the government. Kalyan Singh, Ajit Singh, and Pramod Tiwari are all backing Mulayam for now.

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Mayawati violently disagrees. They didn’t have the numbers back in February 2002, they didn’t have it later, so how can you call them now? Wouldn’t that mean a green signal to jod tod ki rajniti?

And the BJP’s response is the most curious of them all. No demand for President’s rule, no demand that Mulayam Singh not be invited, no demand for dissolution of the assembly.

Why? Two possible answers: they want President’s rule but don’t want to publicly influence the governor (an old RSS pracharak); or there’s something brewing between the SP and the BJP — after all the Prime Minister was rather too responsive to Mulayam Singh’s complaints during the no-confidence motion debate the other day, and Advani’s latest ‘intellectual icon’ (to quote Jaipal Reddy) just happens to be Amar Singh’s best friend.

Fourth question: Where will Mulayam get the numbers? Here’s where relearning arithmetic comes in. Don’t add, subtract. The combined strength of the ‘secular front’ (SP, RLD, RKP, Cong, Left) comes to 178, way short of the required 202 in the 402-member assembly.

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But CLP leader Pramod Tiwari insists that’s a wrong way of looking at things. ‘‘Just minus the BJP and BSP numbers from the total — 402 minus 197. What do you get — 205, more than a simple majority.’’

Kalyan Singh is a little more forthcoming. No MLA wants elections right now. So BJP and BSP members will also swing Mulayam’s way if a vote of strength is called for.

And Singh does to language what Tiwari does to maths. It won’t be a case of dal badal(defection) but dil badal (a change of heart). Touche.

Fifth question: How will all this affect the teeming populace of hapless ‘Ulta Pradesh’? Will the caste war intensify in the countryside? Will the dalits be once again ‘shown their place’ now that Behenji is gone?

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Will the BJP revive the Ayodhya issue as one last-ditch attempt to revive itself? Will the minorities feel secure if Mulayam returns? And will UP climb up or down a notch on the Human Development Index?

The answers may be blowing in the wind, but the dramatis personae in Lucknow’s latest thriller don’t seem to have an inkling.