It’s still about Thaksin

There have been several coups in the past in Thailand, but this bloodless military coup was different. In general, people supported the coup, apparently fed up with Thaksin’s alleged corruption.

The coup leaders led by General Sonthi called themselves the Council for National Security (CNS) and charged Thaksin with corruption, nepotism, causing divisiveness, and insulting the king. Following this, the Constitutional Tribunal dissolved Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, which had won two successive national elections. Not only that, the tribunal banned 111 TRT members, including Thaksin, from participating in Thai politics for five years.

But interestingly, the recent Thai elections are about nothing but being pro- or anti-Thaksin. It is likely to be a referendum on whether people still like Thaksin.

The two main parties in this election are the People’s Power Party (PPP), which had come up after the dissolution of TRT, and the Democratic Party, the oldest in Thai elections. The PPP is seen as the new avatar of the dissolved TRT, since it has the tacit support of Thaksin. Besides, there are other smaller parties, like the Chart Thai, Puea Pandin, and Pracaharaj Party, which have pockets of influence but are unlikely to win. They can, however, play an important role if no party manages to win a majority of seats necessary to form the government.

One would have expected different issues to be raised by different political parties, but it is surprising to note that the whole issue of elections revolves around one man — Thaksin, who has been banned from Thai politics and does not even stay in the country. The question is whether you like him or not. Those who like him are likely to vote for the PPP; those opposed to him will vote for other parties, of which the Democratic Party leads the race.

Polls conducted so far have shown the PPP leading the race, followed by the Democratic Party, but neither of them is likely to win a majority of the seats. This is similar to what we have witnessed in Indian national elections over the last couple of decades.

From general impressions and the polls it is clear that the PPP is the frontrunner, but the question is how is the PPP likely to get support among the Thai people despite being perceived as close to a man seen as corrupt.

Thaksin had been charged of emptying the public exchequer and evading huge amounts in taxes. His family sold its shares in Shin Crop, the telecom empire he founded, to a Singaporean firm for tax-free $ 1.9 billion. Critics charge him with selling a national asset to foreign government. So why should people like to vote for a party he seems to support.

The puzzle resolves somewhat when we look a little deeper. What is clear from observations is that, at least in the forthcoming elections, there is class divide too, running between rural and urban voters.

Most urban voters are likely to vote for the Democratic Party; rural voters, on the other hand, are likely to vote for the PPP, mainly because it is seen as close to Thaksin, the leader they like very much. The PPP has a very strong presence in the North and the North Eastern provinces, which account for a majority of the seats, while the Democratic Party is strong in the southern region, with sizable population of minorities, mainly Muslims.

Traditionally, the TRT party had a strong presence in the North and North Eastern provinces; voters in the southern region have always been sympathetic to the Democratic Party. The other smaller party, the Chart Thai Party, has some presence in the central region.

The love and hate relationship with Thaksin is not limited only to voters: it extends to government officials too. The people in power, the caretaker government, the military — none of them would like the PPP to win, for it would mean the return of Thaksin rule, with the PPP government likely to even drop most cases against him.

The Election Commission of Thailand is also not seen as playing an impartial role: it is seen as the force behind trying to prevent PPP from winning election. There are fears the party may even be banned a few days before election.

But can strict enforcement by the government machinery, aimed largely at preventing PPP from winning elections, really work, given the fact it enjoys huge support among rural people? Thaksin’s popularity with the rural population is chiefly due to his pro-poor policies, such as a 30-baht health policy. The corruption charges do not worry them.

The urban middle-class, however, charges him with “wasting” taxes they paid.

In effect, the Thai election is turning out to be a contest between the power of the people and the might of the state. Can people’s power put up a challenge to the might of the state? That has happened quite often in established democracies, but is yet to be witnessed in Thailand. Only the results will tell us what proves stronger — people power or the might of the state.

(The writer is a fellow at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, New Delhi, and is travelling in Thailand as a member of a team of international observers monitoring the forthcoming election there.)

sanjay@csds.in