Political marriages are not made in heaven but hell in Uttar Pradesh, going by the mad scramble for alliances and the fragile partnerships between major political players in the state. The Samajwadi Party-led four-party government here is already showing signs of cracking up, with speculation of a key partner, Kalyan Singh, rejoining his former party, the BJP. So crucial is Singh’s exit that it can change the fortunes of all four key players — namely the BJP, Congress, BSP and SP. First of all, Singh, a former chief minister and leader of the Rashtriya Kranti Party (RKP), will not only boost the BJP’s fortunes in the general elections, he will conversely dash the rising clout of the SP in the state.The only Lodh leader in the state, Singh’s disenchantment with the BJP had cost the party dearly in the last election. The Lodhs have a decisive presence in at least a dozen parliamentary constituencies — Bundelhand to Bulandashar, Farrukhabad to Lucknow. The results were there to see — the BJP was routed from its high tally of 57 seats to a lowly 29 (later four seats went to Uttaranchal when the state was created). Even Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee lost a lakh votes in his Lucknow constituency from his earlier tally only a year ago.The gains were reaped by Mulayam Singh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party, whose tally rose from 20 seats to a bountiful 26. However, his hopes of returning with a thumping majority this election, leading the formidable Yadav-Jat-Rajput-Kurmi-Lodh-combine, can be dashed with Singh’s exit.Worse, a possible BSP-Congress pre-poll alliance may further dent the SP’s chances. While the alliance will benefit the Congress more than the BSP, it will bring back traditional voters together again — upper castes and Dalits. It is also well-known that the Muslims, so far steadfastly loyal to Mulayam Singh Yadav, may move away to the Congress-BSP, if they are seen as a formidable force to defeat the BJP.There is a vocal section in the BSP who would like an alliance with the Congress, citing Mualayam’s possible decimation in such a scenario, an ample reward for Mayawati. But it remains to be seen when the alliance will be firmed up. According to sources, it is upto the Congress to be more accomodating as it will be the bigger political gainer.
