As the new year begins, Africa seems to be slipping into an older mould. In South Africa, a leadership struggle is on; Nigeria is coping with the consequences of a failed election; and now, Kenya is convulsed by ethnic violence. It wasn’t always like this — Kenya was not just another African country. It does not have a history of coups and it has been remarkably stable. Its capital Nairobi has become a base for transnational corporations and economic growth has averaged about 5 per cent in the past four years. It has been ethically divided, of course. The violence that has overtaken the country now, therefore, raises a special worry: Will it be the (largest tribe) Kikuyus versus the rest? Or is there a force within the country that can bridge the divide? Tridivesh Singh Maini plots the ground reality
• What has led to Kenya’s current problems?
The immediate cause of the unrest in Kenya — an East African country with the highest growth rate in Africa — has been the victory of Mwai Kibaki in the controversial presidential elections held on December 27. Kibaki, who leads the Democratic party, was sworn in for a second term as president on December 30 an hour after the controversial results were declared. An economist by training, he belongs to Kenya’s largest tribe, the Kikuyu (there are approximately forty tribes in all) and was first elected in December 2002 — when the Kenya African National Union, Kanu, lost power after four decades.
• What was so controversial about the presidential election?
The main opposition to Kibaki’s election has come from Raila Odinga who belongs to the Luo tribe. He has alleged large-scale electoral fraud and rigging. Odinga led in the electoral count for three consecutive days until the result was announced. According to the Kenyan papers, the Election Commission was forced to declare the results of the election under duress from Kibaki’s party of national unity. While hundreds of people have died in the violence, approximately 100,000 people have been rendered homeless or displaced.
• What is the scale of the violence?
Hundreds of people have died in the clashes so far. In a violent episode at Eldoret nearly 50 people died when a mob torched a church — less than 200 miles from the capital Nairobi. The majority of victims belonged to Kibaki’s tribe, the Kikuyus. In the past there have been no major clashes between different tribes.
• How has the international community responded to the current crisis?
In its response to the current unrest in Kenya, the US Department of State has clearly stated that it will not accept the results of the election unless all doubts regarding the fairness of the election are put to rest. It has also issued a travel advisory to visitors. The United Kingdom has called upon both Kibaki and Odinga to act in a responsible manner.
• How was Kibaki’s performance in his first term as president?
Kibaki’s first term as president was controversial though he claims that his term ushered an era of economic growth for Kenya — in 2006 the growth rate of Kenya was 6 per cent as compared to less than 1 per cent when he took the reigns of the presidency. Some of Mibaki’s ministers were also part of major corruption scandals. It is alleged that between 2002 and 2005 nearly a billion dollars had been lost in corruption. In addition to corruption charges, his government was also accused of imposing restrictions on the media.
• What was the political landscape like before Kibaki?
Kenya was under British rule till 1963. From 1963 till 1978, Kenyan politics was dominated by Omo Kenyatta. From 1978 onwards, Daniel arap Moi belonging to the Kenya African National Union, Kanu — which happened to be the only legal political entity — dominated the political landscape of the country till 2002.
• Aren’t there a large number of Indians in Kenya. In this time of conflict, how vulnerable are they?
Kenya has a sizeable Indian population — more than three lakh. They are well off economically and own most of the businesses. In an atmosphere of general lawlessness and conflict, they constitute a vulnerable population.
tridivesh.singh@expressindia.com