Kingdom is history, still Scindia reigns

February 25: Gavaliar, as the locals love to call it, has all the bustle of a city going to elect a prime minister, no matter who wins. Whil...

February 25: Gavaliar, as the locals love to call it, has all the bustle of a city going to elect a prime minister, no matter who wins. While Madhavrao Scindia may emerge a front runner in a Congress-led government, his opponent Bajrang Dal president Jaybhan Singh Pavaiyya is a representative of `son of the city’ Atal Behari Vajpayee.

In meeting after meeting, Pavaiyya plays up the contest as a revenge match, as Scindia faces his first serious rival in 14 years. In ’84 he had trounced Vajpayee riding an Indira wave but since then has not been challenged by a leader of any stature, including ’96, when the BJP under the Rajmata’s pressure did not put up a candidate at all. The notion that Gwalior and Guna are Scindia family’s seats has been challenged for the first time by Pavaiyya who speaks against feudalism. The Scindias are so shaken that each one of them is out on foot for the first time. Pavaiyya says at a meeting that he’ll be available 24 hours to listen to them, “not sit behind palacegates.”

Besides Pavaiyya, Scindia is having to deal with the new-found brashness of his former SC subjects rallying under the blue flag of the BSP. Phool Singh Baraiyaa who garnered 22 per cent votes in a straight fight last time is depending on a division of votes this time. Statistics shows that Scindia has only a marginal edge over his rivals. BSP which has increased its vote share from 7 per cent in ’89 to 10 per cent in ’91 to 22 per cent in ’96 is likely to retain at least that much again.

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The BJP on the other hand has consistently polled 27 per cent which is likely to increase as OBC votes get divided. Scindia who has polled over 50 per cent every time is, however, the only one whose number of votes are likely to decrease. Gwalior is an OBC-dominated constituency with 55 per cent voters belonging to backward castes, 21 per cent belong to the SC category with Baraiyya’s caste (Chamar) dominant. There are about 15 per cent Brahmins and Thakurs and only two per cent STs. The Gujjars among the OBCsconsider themselves closer to Thakurs and this time they are rooting for Pavaiyya. The BJP is also counting on the voting percentage going up substantially last time it was 43 per cent as hard-core BJP voters stayed away.

All said and done, Scindia’s personal image, the aura of blue blood, the mystic of the palace and the developmental work in Gwalior, Malanpur, Morena and Guna keeps him ahead of his rivals. Call it what you will, servility of the masses or respect for authority, Scindia remains Shrimant Maharaj of Gwalior. At least in ’98.