It's action replay in Kerala — except this time the thespians on the state’s political stage have undergone a complete reversal of roles. In the 1979-81 period, now Chief Minister A.K. Antony rebelled against Indira Gandhi and joined hands with the Left while K. Karunakaran was the arch loyalist. Twenty-two years later, old war horse Karunakaran is the brand new rebel and he too is on the verge of joining hands with the Left, to take on both his bete noire Antony and the ‘‘high command.’’ Well-placed sources confirmed that the CPI(M)-led LDF has decided to back Karunakaran’s rebel candidate K. Govindan Nair against the official candidates in the polls to the Rajya Sabha on Monday. The LDF will transfer its four surplus votes to Nair which might be crucial for his victory. The Congress’ two official candidates in the fray Thennala Balakrishna Pillai and Vayalar Ravi are dubbed as Antony’s men by the Karunkaran faction. Karunakaran hit back by putting up his own candidate and has refused to withdraw him despite entreaties and threats from the high command. Karunakaran’s rebelliousness stems from his strong support base not just within the Congress but from among the UDF allies and now even the Opposition LDF. The Karunakaran faction is believed to have the loyalty of at least 26 MLAs, 10 short of the necessary 36 votes to ensure Nair’s victory. But, sources said Karunakaran is banking on the support of the Kerala Congress (Jacob), Kerala Congress (Balkrishna Pillai), RSP (Baby John), and K.R. Gouriamma’s JSS. Together, they account for seven votes giving Karunakaran’s candidate 33 votes. If the LDF transfers its four votes (by making Nair their second preference candidate), he will get 37 votes which is one more than the mandatory requirement. The game in Kerala does not end on April 14 — it actually begins then. If Karunakaran’s man wins, it will not just be a slap on the face of the high command but lead to the fall of the Antony government. The LDF will demand fresh elections, and failing that is willing to support a Karunakaran-led government in the interim, sources said. But even if Karunakaran does not win this time round, the Left stands to gain. The Congress divisions will be out in the open and a thwarted Karunakaran will be even more dangerous for Antony and the Congress leadership, they feel. The LDF and Karunakaran have been traditional foes, but going by the realpolitik dictum that ‘‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’’, the Left is eager to take advantage of the situation — more so because the Marxists have been running a bitter and often losing battle against the no-nonsense ‘‘Saint Antony.’’ Confirming the Left’s interest in the developing scenario, CPI(M) politburo member S. Ramachandran Pillai told The Indian Express that ‘‘in Kerala, the Congress today is clearly divided. It is not of our making but it is the responsibility of the Opposition to make use of the situation. And there is no need to protect the anti-people Antony government. In fact, we will try and help the process of bringing down his government.’’
