LeT will attack India, warns US Intelligence

McConnel was giving his assessment while briefing the US Select Senate Committee on Intelligence on an unclassified version of the Annual Threat Assessment.

“We judge Kashmir-focussed groups will continue to support the attacks in Afghanistan, and operatives trained by the groups will continue to feature in al-Qaida translational attack planning,” McConnel told law makers.

McConnel also made the assessment that although India and Pakistan are “fielding a more mature strategic nuclear capability” neither of them are in a Cold war mentality of an arms race for numerical superiority.

The top Intelligence person of the Bush administration also argued that the ongoing political uncertainty in Pakistan has not seriously threatened the military control over the country’s nuclear arsenals.

“In assessing the nuclear competition between India and Pakistan, we note that missile tests and new force deployments over the past three years have not affected the ongoing political dialogue.

Although both New Delhi and Islamabad are fielding a more mature strategic nuclear capability, they do not appear to be engaged in a Cold War-style arms race for numerical superiority.”

Talking about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, McConnel said the political turmoil in the country has not seriously threatened the military’s control of its nuclear assets but “vulnerabilities exist.”

“We judge the ongoing political uncertainty in Pakistan has not seriously threatened the military’s control of the nuclear arsenal, but vulnerabilities exist,” he said.

“The Pakistan Army oversees nuclear programmes, including security responsibilities, and we judge that the Army’s management of nuclear policy issues to include physical security has not been degraded by Pakistan’s political crisis,” the top intelligence official said.

He said al-Qaida continues to maintain a “safe haven” in Pakistan’s tribal areas, where the outfit is able to stage attacks in support of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

“Al-Qaeda has been able to retain a safe haven in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) that provides the organisation many of the advantages it once derived from its base across the border in Afghanistan, albeit on a smaller and less secure scale.

“The FATA serves as a staging area for al-Qaida’s attacks in support of the Taliban in Afghanistan as well as a location for training new terrorist operatives, for attacks in Pakistan, the Middle East, Africa, Europe and the US,” McConnel said.

He said the al-Qaeda, using the “sanctuary in the border area of Pakistan, has been able to “maintain a cadre of skilled lieutenants capable of directing the organisation’s operations around the world.”

“It has lost many of its senior operational planners over the years, but the group’s adaptable decision making process and bench of skilled operatives have enabled it to identify effective replacements,” he added.

The US intelligence official said al-Qaeda continues to pose serious threat to the US at home and abroad.

“Al-Qaeda and its terrorist affiliates continue to pose significant threats to the United States at home and abroad, and al-Qaeda’s central leadership based in the border area of Pakistan is its most dangerous component,” McConnel said.

“Al-Qaeda is improving the last key aspect of its ability to attack the US, the identification, training, and positioning of operatives for an attack in the Homeland. While increased security measures at home and abroad have caused al-Qaeda to view the West, especially the US, as a harder target, we have seen an influx of new Western recruits into the tribal areas since mid-2006,” he told law makers.