Life after the referendum

There were no street parties of noisy celebration in Ulster following the result. There is a war-weariness among its people, and the awareness that the referendum was the easy part and there are morehurdles ahead. The referendum result was the green signal for elections to the 108-member Northern Ireland Assembly to be held on June 25. The balance of power in the Assembly will decide whether the agreement works or not. The institutions, including the North-South council, which will govern Northern Ireland must be set up by the assembly. According to the terms of the agreement any decision made by the assembly can be vetoed if 60 per cent of either the Republican or Unionist bloc votes against it.

Until now certain Unionist parties, led by the strident Rev. Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionist party (DUP), who opposed the agreement have said that they intend to fight the elections, take their seats in the assembly, to ensure the failure of the agreement. Despite enough evidence to the contrary, Paisley maintains that only a minority of Unionists voted "yes". His party said that it would work, "constructively, peacefully, constitutionally and democratically" in the assembly for those who said "no" at thereferendum. But, those in the "yes" camp believe that Paisley, whose personal popularity among Unionists is not disputed, is out of touch with the people. An exit poll conducted for the Republic’s sate-owned network, RTE, seems to support their argument. The poll found that even among those who voted "no", some 69 per cent felt that those who are elected to the assembly should "try to make it work".

The sticking point, which a majority of those who opposed the agreement said was their main reason for voting "no", is the release of prisoners. Unionist across the board feel strongly about the release of prisoners accused of terrorism and murder before their parties accept the complete decommissioning of paramilitary arms. Unionist politicians also built into the agreement clauses which preclude members of militant organisations occupying ministerial offices in the new assembly until their parties have accepted decommissioning and renounced the use of violence. Tony Blair, in a hand-written pledge made a daybefore the vote, promised that these concerns would be met.

Elections in Northern Ireland have so far been about one issue — the Troubles. The electorate, with the exception of some eight per cent, voted along sectarian lines. Catholics voted for the two main Republican or Nationalist parties, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Sinn Fein. Protestants voted for a variety of Unionist or Loyalist parties, primarily the Ulster Unionist, The Democratic Unionist and UK unionist and the Progressive Unionists. The election to the new assembly is the first opportunity for Ulster’s electorate to vote for more than loyalty to a side in order to make something work.

The vote for the six seats in each of the 18 constituencies will be based on the principle of the single transferable vote. Among the "yes" camp, the SDLP has taken the lead in emphasising that their supporters should give their transfers to pro-agreement candidates irrespective of which party they belong to — including Sinn Fein, theAlliance Party or even the Ulster Unionist Party. The SDLP has turned down a Sinn Fein proposal for an electoral alliance saying "the type of pact that’s now being suggested is within one section of interest and would run totally contrary to the spirit of the agreement that people have voted for."

But, within the Unionist "yes" camp this form of magnanimity may be harder to come by. Unionist leaders including David Trimble still do not speak directly to Sinn Fein. With the anti-agreement Unionists saying that the agreement will put terrorists in the assembly and set in motion the unification of Ireland, Trimble will find it hard to tell his supporters to back Sinn Fein over a "no"-voting Unionist. What would make things easier for Trimble is if Sinn Fein declared its intention to hand over all its arms and relinquish violence forever. Asked after the referendum result if he would now speak to Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams since they were on the same side, Trimble said that he would if Adams first told himthat "what he calls the war is over".

Those in the Republican movement who support peace have had their hands strengthened by the large turnout and the massive nationalist "yes" vote. Also critically, a large majority of nationalist voters in the north — some 86 per cent — accepts that Ireland should be united only if a majority of people in the province wanted it. Coupled with this, a parallel referendum in the Republic of Ireland, received nearly 95 per cent backing for a change in the constitution to revoke the Republic’s territorial claim over the north. As many have pointed out, this was the first time that people on both sides of the border voted for them same thing — peace in Ulster.