Long before 9/11, he read writing on the wall

Lone again found himself under attack from jihadis when he said that ‘‘foreign militants and those with pan-Islamic agendas’’ should leave Kashmiris alone. Interestingly, this statement was made long before Sept 11 when he was in Pakistan in connection with the marriage of his son Sajjad Lone to the daughter of Pak-based JKLF leader Amanullah Khan.

Hurriyat hardens: Lone argued that the separatist struggle will succeed only if it remains ‘‘indigenous’’ and keeps a distance from the jihadi movement which believes Kashmir to be one among the many jihadi battles across the world. His killing may shift the power balance within the Hurriyat since few moderates will now speak up, at least for a while.

New Delhi gains short-term but: Lone’s killing has come at a time when India is telling the world that Musharraf isn’t doing enough to rein in the jihadis. To that effect, the death can work in Delhi’s favour since it can argue that extremists with active support from across have taken over Kashmir’s separatist movement and are bent upon physically eliminating moderate leaders. However, in the long run, Lone’s death has left a vacuum that’s hard to fill. Moderates like Shabir Shah will think twice now before sending any feelers.

Farooq gains: Farooq has been making noises over New Delhi’s signals to the Hurriyat (read moderates like Lone). Lone was one of the few Hurriyat leaders who had strong political support in Kupwara, Handwara, Bandipore, the Kandi belt in Baramullah and even patches of Budgam.

If he had fielded proxy candidates against Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference, he would have given them a tough fight. Besides, Lone was seen as the only ‘‘politician’’ within the Hurriyat, who had four decades of experience opposing the National Conference.

More violence: Lone may have been tough on jehadis but his party, too, had an active militant outfit, the Al-Barq. It’s very likely that Lone’s supporters may try to avenge his killing leading to more violence.

Musharraf under pressure: Gen Musharraf will come under severe pressure to intensify his crackdown on hardline groups in Pakistan. His late-night statement condeming the death of a ‘‘distinguished leader of the Kashmiri people’’ is towards that effect after an earlier knee-jerk statement from the Foreign Office accusing India.

Foreign militants: The impact of Lone’s death on the role of foreign militant groups inside Kashmir will be determined by how the Hurriyat finally reacts to the killing and how Pakistan deals with rising international pressure. In the run-up to the polls, further attempts to silence other moderate voices can’t be ruled out.