Looking beyond Bali, looking to the future

• What was the U.N. meet in Bali about?

Under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, there is an existing deal called the Kyoto Protocol, which demands that the 36 big emitters of greenhouse gases reduce emissions by a fixed percentage by 2012. Bali was to discuss what happens after 2012.

• Why was the meeting contentious?

For now only rich countries are expected to cut their carbon emissions. But in the new deal, it is believed that after 2012, even developing countries like India and China, whose emission levels are going up, need to take on some commitment to cut emissions.

• What was the conclusion?

They have decided on a new set of principles that will, over the next two years, help the countries decide a post-2012 deal. By 2009, the world, based on the Bali Roadmap, will draw up a new treaty to succeed the present Kyoto treaty. The good news is that India does not have to take on fixed targets. However, India does have to show what steps it is taking to reduce emission.

• Why is the world putting pressure on India?

Though India’s per capita emission is 15 times lower than the largest emitter, the U.S., it is seen as rapidly growing. It is the fourth largest emitter in the world after the U.S., China and Russia. Though India has been resisting all pressure to take on mandatory targets for cutting its emissions, its inefficient use of energy in coal-fired plants has come in for criticism. It is felt India can no longer hide behind the per capita figures of energy consumption.

• Apart from the debate over emission targets, what were the other issues discussed?

There was discussion on some other mechanisms to help developing countries cope with climate change. Though these are still preliminary, they will form a part of the roadmap that will guide the new treaty following the expiry of the Kyoto protocol in 2012. The Bali meeting agreed to launch a U.N. fund to help poor nations cope with damage from climate change, such as droughts or rising seas. The Adaptation Fund now has only about $36 million but this might rise to $5 billion a year by 2030 if investment in green technology in developing nations surges. It also talks of a pay-and-preserve scheme, called REDD (reducing emission from deforestation in developing countries), that from 2013 will aim to allow poorer nations to sell carbon offsets to rich nations in return for not burning tropical forests. The draft decision encourages parties to undertake pilot projects to address the main causes of deforestation.

• Does the agreement indicate that that India will get access to more technology transfer?

The final draft called for more financial resources and investment for developing countries on adaptation, mitigation and technology cooperation, especially for the most vulnerable. Technology transfer has been a key demand of developing nations, which say they should not have to sacrifice growth to fight warming. They also cannot afford clean technologies that will allow them to expand their economies while curbing emission.

• Do these things translate into anything substantial for India?

Since India is no longer a “poor country”, it is not seen as qualifying for the fund that is likely to be set up. In any case, the amount is peanuts. The fund proposes $36 million dollars, way below what poor countries need. Technology transfer for clean tech, on which India claims to have taken leadership, failed to move forward substantially with developed countries opposing it tooth and nail.

• What does all this mean for Indian industry and policy-makers?

Experts believe that clearly the future is going to be a low-carbon future and those who accept the fact are going to be winners and those who don’t are going to be left behind. There is a call for a technology revolution in the sectors of transport, power and building.