Loose nukes next door

Paradoxes never cease in the unique relationship between the United States and Pakistan. Just when Washington was straining to reassure the American people of the safety of Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal, General Pervez Musharraf chose to contradict the Bush administration. Musharraf insists that the nuclear weapons are safe only so long as he is in charge. The series of recent leaks in Washington media drew attention to the real danger of “loose nukes” in Pakistan, and underlined the need for a quick stabilisation of the country. This can only happen if the emergency is lifted and the deal between Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto, salvaged. But Musharraf is in a mood to blackmail the US with the proposition that after him, the nuclear deluge. And he may well have succeeded in this, judging from the reluctance of John Negroponte, the US deputy secretary of state who had visited Pakistan recently, to press Musharraf too far. Other than China, which was present at the creation of Pakistani nuclear arsenal, only the US has significant information on the nature of the country’s command and control. The US response to the nuclear danger in Pakistan has two strands. One is to assist the Pakistan army in improving its nuclear controls. The other is the contingency planning to ‘take out’ Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal if the jihadist got closer to them. Musharraf cited this threat when he supported America’s war on terror in Afghanistan after 9/11. The US Quadrennial Defence Review, published in early 2006, stated explicitly that the Pentagon will “use all elements of national power — to locate, secure and destroy” weapons of mass destruction in hostile and uncertain environments. Like Washington, New Delhi is aware that all the sophisticated nuclear controls will come to naught if the Pakistan army disintegrates or comes under the sway of extremists. That clearly is some distance away. Meanwhile the crisis across the border should make it more difficult for China to demand a nuclear deal for Pakistan like the one US is offering India. The government senses the big moment of nuclear differentiation between a responsible India and an unstable Pakistan is at hand. We wish we could say the same about the BJP and the CPM.