After the Maharashtra polls today where an estimated 58 per cent of the electorate turned up, The Indian Express-Loksatta-NDTV exit poll shows that the elections may throw up a hung Assembly. Both the fronts, the Congress-NCP and the Shiv Sena-BJP, the poll shows, will fall short of a simple majority in the house of 288. That could open the field for rebels and Others who are likely to win a considerable number of seats (30-45) to hold quite a few bargaining chips in government formation. Counting is scheduled for Saturday. The exit poll forecasts 120-130 seats for the ruling alliance and 125-135 for the Sena-BJP combine, well short of the halfway mark of 144. The exit poll was conducted by MODE and analysed and reported by Prannoy Roy, I P Bajpai, Namrata Gupta and Dorab R Sopariwala of NDTV. Six months after the Lok Sabha polls, the predicted Assembly results show considerable change in the swing pattern in most of the six regions. While Mumbai and Konkan show more or less the same trend, there are wild swings in Marathwada, North Maharashtra, Vidarbha and Western Maharashtra. In Marathwada, the Cong-NCP is likely to get 6-10 seats, a loss of eight seats to the ‘Others’ while the rival alliance maintains 30-34. In North Maharashtra, the ruling alliance suffers again with 9-13 seats, a loss of six while Sena-BJP gains two. Perhaps, the most unexpected result will be in Vidarbha, where the Cong-NCP gains 13 seats more than its Lok Sabha tally while the saffron combine is set to lose 18. In Western Maharashtra, it is the Congress-NCP which is the big loser, losing 12 seats from its tally at the Lok Sabha polls, almost all of them to rebels.
