Making virtue of a fix: LJP MLAs won’t ally anyway

Ram Vilas Paswan’s equidistance between the RJD and NDA is not merely an expression of principle but, sources here suggest, born of gen...

Ram Vilas Paswan’s equidistance between the RJD and NDA is not merely an expression of principle but, sources here suggest, born of genuine dilemma.

‘‘Of Paswan’s 29 MLAs,’’ a senior Bihar politician points out, ‘‘nine are Bhumihar and seven Rajput. They have been elected on a Bhumihar-Muslim or a Rajput-Muslim base. If they go with the BJP, they anger the Muslims. If they go with Laloo, they anger the Bhumihars or Rajputs.’’

While the Congress is obviously keen on a UPA reunification and wants to broker an RJD-LJP truce, the composition of the MLAs is an obstacle. ‘‘Of Paswan’s 29 MLAs, about 20 are upper caste, and not one is a Muslim,’’ an NDA functionary says. ‘‘Of the 18 Independents, only one is a Muslim. In this group of 47, about 30 are upper caste, there are two BJP rebels, one JD(U) rebel. The mood is anti-Laloo.’’

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Having said that, despite what his MLAs may push for, Paswan can hardly sign up with the BJP. He has already told the Governor he will not back the RJD or the NDA.

So what will he do? As one Congress MP puts it, ‘‘He wants to create a crisis and let events take their course.’’ His price for a UPA government may be a non-RJD chief minister and Paswan being given the Railway Ministry. ‘‘This is something we can’t afford,’’ the MP says.

As a counter, Laloo may ask the Congress to remove Paswan from the Cabinet — ‘‘If he’s not with us in Bihar, we’re not with him in Delhi.’’ This will give Paswan ‘‘a halo, as the man who gave up a ministry rather than compromise with Laloo’’. It will also put the onus of his departure from the UPA on the Congress and Laloo, and not on him.

In this scenario, the NDA still feels ‘‘a Paswan-led government, with JD(U) participation’’ is possible. The BJP is, of course, agreeable to supporting it from outside.

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Which of the two scenarios will prevail? For the moment, perhaps, even Paswan isn’t sure.