N-heat off, Khamenei steps up pressure

A rift is emerging between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iran’s...

A rift is emerging between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iran’s supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, suggesting that the President no longer enjoys the ayatollah’s full backing, as he did in the years after his election in 2005.

In the past, when Ahmadinejad was attacked by his opponents, criticisms were usually silenced by Khamenei, who has the final word on state matters and endorsed the President in public speeches. But that public support has been conspicuously absent in recent months.

There are numerous possible reasons for Ahmadinejad’s loss of support, but analysts all point to

one overriding factor: the US National Intelligence Estimate last month, which said Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 in response to international pressure. The intelligence estimate sharply reduced the threat of a military strike against Iran, allowing the Iranian authorities to focus on domestic issues, with important parliamentary elections looming in March.

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“Now that Iran is not under the threat of a military attack, all contradictions within the establishment are surfacing,” said Saeed Leylaz, an economic and political analyst.

Iran had been under international pressure for its refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment program, which can be pursued for either peaceful or military purposes. In separate speeches last year, American and French officials did not rule out a military attack on Iran if it continued its defiance. Those threats have stopped since the intelligence estimate was released.

While the pressure was on, Iranian leaders were reluctant to let any internal disagreements show. Senior officials, including Khamenei, constantly called for unity and warned that the US could take advantage of such differences.

The relationship began to sour, even before the intelligence estimate was released. A person close to Khamenei said the ayatollah was disappointed with Ahmadinejad’s economic performance, which has led to steep inflation in the cost of basic necessities, from food to rents to property values.