N-pact: Chinese silence fails to unnerve India

On the brink of regaining access to the international nuclear energy market, India hopes support from Russia, France and Britain will help t...

On the brink of regaining access to the international nuclear energy market, India hopes support from Russia, France and Britain will help the Bush administration change international non-proliferation rules.

While the three European nuclear powers have broadly welcomed the Indo-US nuclear pact, the official Chinese silence has not gone unnoticed here.

The government, however, is not overly concerned about potential opposition from Beijing to altering the global rules of nuclear commerce. Analysts here underline the possibility that China might either oppose the Indo-US nuclear deal or demand that similar privileges be extended to Pakistan as

well.

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While India will wait to assess the attitudes of different nations on the issue, it is betting that there will be enough political support in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) for the Bush proposals.

Under the pact, the Bush administration has promised to amend its domestic laws on non-proliferation as well as NSG rules to facilitate civilian nuclear energy cooperation with India.

China will have an opportunity to react at the NSG, where it has recently become a member, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) where it sits on the board of governors.

But there is confidence here that if the three nuclear powers—Russia, France and Britain—translate their verbal welcome of the pact into strong political support at the NSG, the inevitable opposition from some quarters to India being treated as a ‘‘nuclear exception’’ could be managed.

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The Russian atomic energy establishment sees India as a major market and has been keen on expanding nuclear links with India. Moscow, however, got into trouble with the NSG after it exported nuclear fuel to the Tarapur power plant in 2001 and tried to negotiate new reactor sales to India. With the Bush Administration now calling for a change of NSG rules, Russia will be expected to back the move.

French President Jacques Chirac was the first international leader to speak of the need to accommodate India into the global nuclear order. Unlike US and Japan, which condemned the Indian tests in May 1998 and imposed sanctions, France urged the world to recognise India’s nuclear reality and find ways to bring India onboard the non-proliferation regime.

Like Russia, France has been keen on N-energy cooperation with India and has been talking to New Delhi since 1998. France had proposed measures of the type now being considered by India under the nuclear pact with the US. While welcoming the deal, Paris, however, would not like to be marginalised from the lucrative Indian nuclear market. Allaying these French concerns might be of some immediate importance for New Delhi.

While Britain has no reactors to sell, its support should have some effect on the European Union and the NSG.

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While many nations will oppose the deal on the ground that it undermines the non-proliferation treaty system, the blessing from the IAEA should help ease some of these concerns.

Reacting to the deal, the IAEA Secretary General Mohamad ElBaradei said, ‘‘Out of the box thinking and active participation by all members of the international community are important if we are to advance nuclear arms control, non-proliferation, safety and security, and tackle new threats such as illicit trafficking in sensitive nuclear technology and the risks of nuclear terrorism.’’