New report shifts framework of US-Iran relations: Think tank

The new assessment that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons programme in late 2003 shifts the entire framework for US-Iranian relations, a US think tank has said.

The new American intelligence assessment that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons programme in late 2003 shifts the entire framework for US-Iranian relations and with it the structure of geopolitical relations throughout the region, a US-based think tank has said.

Observing that it could see start of some movement on Iraq between the US and Iran, Strategic Forecasting said the major blocker from US side has been removed and the success of American policies should motivate Iranians.

The new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), it said, solves a geopolitical problem for the United States.

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“Washington cannot impose a unilateral settlement on Iraq, nor can it sustain forever the level of military commitment it has made to Iraq. There are other fires starting to burn around the world. At the same time, Washington cannot work with Tehran while it is building nuclear weapons. Hence, the NIE: While Iran does have a nuclear power programme, it is not building nuclear weapons,” it added.

Iran, it argued, wants to play a critical role in defining the nature, policies and capabilities of the Iraqi regime. The central issue for Iran is not nuclear weapons but the future of Iraq.

The recent US successes in Iraq, limited and transitory they might be, may have caused the Iranians to rethink their view on dealing with the Americans on Iraq, it said.

“The Americans, regardless of progress, cannot easily suppress all of the Shiite militias. The Iranians cannot impose a regime on Iraq, though they can destabilise the process. A successful outcome requires a degree of cooperation — and recent indication suggest that Iran is prepared to provide that cooperation,” it added.