Nitish takes a step back from BJP

These included the LJP (29), CPI (3), CPI(ML) (7), NCP (3), SP (4), BSP (2) and Independents (17). With his own tally at 55, this adds up to 120 in a House of 243, two short of a majority. But JD (U) sources expressed confidence that “we will form a government in Patna within the next couple of weeks.”

Perhaps to facilitate this, Nitish did not send the CMP to either the Congress or the CPM saying these two were backing the RJD. The BJP is unusually silent as it waits and watches.

Before the Bihar elections, Nitish had reportedly expressed his willingness to join hands with Paswan and the Congress if they broke ranks with the RJD. While that would have marked a new politics in the Hindi heartland—a formidable alliance of Yadav-downward OBCs, Dalits, Muslims and a sprinkling of upper castes—the Congress played it safe not wanting to threaten the UPA government in Delhi.

Now it’s learnt that Nitish might also agree to a Muslim leader becoming the Chief Minister, something that Paswan has all along insisted on and even reiterated it today. One name doing the rounds is that of Union Minister Shakeel Ahmed of the Congress. Given its compulsions in Delhi, the Congress is not likely to lend its support to an anti-RJD government so Ahmed could have to quit the party.

While the Congress dismissed today’s development saying the “arithmetic” did not add up, the CPM questioned Paswan’s continuation in the UPA if he decided to hobnob with ‘‘communal forces’’ in Bihar.

Even if the numbers do not add up, and this does not look possible unless the Congress or the BJP or the CPM support it, the attempt at government formation without the BJP would go to “expose” the Congress, particularly if Nitish shows his willingness to delink from the BJP, not insist on Chief Ministership himself, and even lends his support to a Muslim for CM. And if Paswan also demonstrates he is willing to give up his claim to CMship for a secular government.

This raises the question: Will Paswan eventually agree to outside support by the BJP after the attempt to form a secular government does not succeed?

He met Nitish this morning, a meeting facilitated significantly by the Samajwadi Party. The venue: home of SP Bihar chief Dadan Singh ‘Pehelwan’ in Patna.

Today’s developments come after Paswan’s sudden move to “dissolve” his party in Bihar. He has reason to. Ever since the elections, BJP leaders have been heard saying that despite the amended anti-defection law, it was possible to get the LJP legislators to vote in favour of the JD(U)-BJP combine if the chief whip played ball. Paswan seems to have moved pre-emptively to keep the party strictly under his control.

It is no secret that Paswan has been under pressure from many of his 29 party MLAs to form a government—19 of them belong to the upper castes—and there was also talk of taking the merger route with the JD(U), which is still allowed under the amended anti-defection law.