No clear edge in Maharashtra

1999, the partners had fought separately and yet obtained 137 seats. This time, they are fighting together but they are likely to win about the same number of seats. In 1999, their combined votes exceeded 50 per cent; this time, they are likely to fall below 45 per cent and are likely to win just over 130 seats, a fall even from their recent Lok Sabha performance. The Congress-NCP is likely to do best in Western Maharashtra, where there is widespread rebellion in the ranks of the alliance.

While the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance’s share of votes is expected to be just over 40 per cent (from around 33 per cent in 1999 and 43 per cent in the 2004 LS polls), its seat tally is likely to fall sharply, and in its happy hunting ground of Mumbai, its performance is expected to be worse than that in the recent Lok Sabha elections. In the 1995 Vidhan Sabha elections in Maharashtra, Independents won 45 seats and around 25 per cent of the votes — the highest in the history of the state.

Overall, the difference in votes between the two fronts is likely to be quite small but each front has its areas of strength and weakness. The Congress-NCP is relatively stronger in urban areas (in rural areas, both are equally strong), among women and older voters. The BJP’s strength is relatively greater among younger voters. In terms of caste, the BJP-Sena combine does well among the upper castes and the Marathas, while the Congress-NCP alliance has a stronger backing among the Dalits and the Adivasis. The large OBC bloc is evenly divided.

Party or candidate?

The electoral contest in Maharashtra is going to see a field full of rebels and Independents who could end up making and breaking governments. Respondents were asked whether they were voting for the candidate or the party.

Shinde government’s performance

Everything considered, a 2:1 majority backs the performance of the Congress-NCP government. The relatively poor ratings in the BJP-SS strongholds of Konkan and the North are more than made up by the strong backing in Western Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha.

Most popular leader

Voters were asked to choose their favourite leader from among Sonia Gandhi, A.B. Vajpayee, Sharad Pawar and Bal Thackeray. Most surveys conducted when Vajpayee was PM, showed he was well ahead of Sonia. The findings of this poll suggest that there is a strong incumbency effect.

Sonia’s refusal to be PM

When Sonia Gandhi declined to be PM, some hailed it as an act of sacrifice; others felt it was a political stunt to win the sympathy of the electorate. By a significant majority, the voters of Maharashtra feel that Sonia’s act of turning down the PM’s kursi was an act of sacrifice than just a political gimmick.

Are you better off than 5 years ago?

Voters were asked if their economic condition had improved or deteriorated over the past five years. Shinde should heave a sigh of relief from the finding that, on balance, voters feel their families are better off now than they were five years ago.

Impact of Lok Sabha elections

The Congress-NCP government is going into these elections with their parties having won the recent Lok Sabha elections. Could this make voters more favourably disposed towards the alliance or would it turn off the voters? When voters were asked this question, there was a majority stating that the Congress-NCP Lok Sabha victory would be more likely to make them vote for the Congress-NCP combine at the Vidhan Sabha elections.

The legacy of Shivaji

Asked to identify the party that would best protect the legacy of Shivaji, the eponymous Sena was named by over 60 pc of the respondents. The Congress came a distant second with 22 pc and the others were mentioned by fewer respondents as protectors of Shivaji’s legacy.

The leadership stakes
		BJP-Shiv Sena: Balasaheb Thackeray is clearly the numbe one choice of one third of the electorate. Gopinath Munde a distant second, followed closely by brother-in-law Pramod Mahajan. It would be a matter of some concern for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance that it does not have a strong second string behind the ailing Balasaheb. It would be a matter of some concern for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance that it does not have a strong second string behind the ailing Balasaheb. Best BJP-SS CM (%) • Bal Thackeray: 33 • Gopinath Munde: 20 • Pramod Mahajan: 18 • Narayan Rane: 14 • Uddhav Thackeray : 9 • Raj Thackeray: 6 Congress-NCP: As in the case of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, the top leader, the non-contesting leader, Sharad Pawar, is the choice of just over a third of the electorate for the post of CM should the Congress-NCP alliance return to power. But just 2 per cent behind him is the incumbent Chief Minister, Sushilkumar Shinde. Best Congress-NCP CM (%) • Sharad Pawar: 36 • Sushilkumar Shinde: 34 • Vilasrao Deshmukh: 22 • Chagan Bhujbal: 8