No one’s ready, but BJP has the upper hand

“We will stake our claim in constituencies where we are in a stronger position than the BJP,” said Loktantrik Congress chief Naresh Agarwal. The other two supporting groups have also made similar claims.

For the BJP, this could spell trouble especially if it succumbs to pressure and gives in to their demands the way it agreed to induct all the supporting MLAs in the Kalyan Singh Cabinet. The Loktantrik Congress has staked its claim on eight of the 39 Council seats that are going to polls on December 29. Of these, it has already succeeded in getting four. However, the party is yet to formalise its strategy for the Lok Sabha polls.

The BJP is not the only one to have problems. Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav also finds himself hard-pressed as he will have to part with some seats to some of his UF partners. Moreover, if he reaches an understanding with the Congress, then he will have to enter into a seat-sharing arrangement with the party.

Mulayam’s reported unwillingness to part with seats is likely to affect the distribution of seats among UF constituents. “I would have won more seats if I had not left 21 seats for allies,” he had remarked after the results of last year’s Lok Sabha elections.

The BSP, on the other hand, is likely to go it alone. Former chief minister and BSP leader Mayawati has categorically ruled out any alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in the State.

In the last parliamentary elections held in May ’96, the BJP had contested 84 of the 85 Lok Sabha seats from the State. The remaining seat was left for Chandra Shekhar, who contested as a Samata Party candidate. However, according to State BJP president Raj Nath Singh, the party has not yet decided on a seat-adjustment formula with its supporting parties for the parliamentary polls.

The Congress and the BSP, which were the other two major parties in the poll arena, had contested all the 85 seats. The SP, on the other hand, entered into a seat-sharing arrangement with the two Communist parties and the JD. According to their agreement, the SP contested 64 seats, leaving 16 for the JD and two each for the CPI and the CPI(M).

In a surprise move, SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav had withdrawn his candidature from Amethi, leaving the field open for Congress candidate Captain Satish Sharma. Narain Dutt Tewari had made the contest five-cornered by fielding 60 nominees from the Congress (T).

The BJP had a clear lead over its rivals winning 52 Lok Sabha seats. The SP was a distant second with 16 seats, followed by BSP with six seats. The Congress managed to win five seats, the JD and the Congress (T) two seats each, the Samata one with Independents bagging one seat (Kalpnath Rai).

The party positions in the Lok Sabha altered slightly when JD candidate Maneka Gandhi was thrown out of the party for accusing then Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda of taking commission in the Congentrix power project in Karnataka.

Later, Ajit Singh resigned from the Congress and the Lok Sabha to form his Bharatiya Kisan Kamgar Party (BKKP). He was re-elected from Baghpat in the by-elections and joined the United Front (UF). The Congress tally became five again when N.D. Tewari rejoined the party.

But with the anti-BJP parties unable to forge unity in the state, it will clearly be advantage-BJP even though it has some compulsions of its own vis-a-vis its allies. The saffron party is likely to match its performance in the last parliamentary elections, if not improve on it.