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Now, the Doordarshan Budget Show

With the government increasingly convinced that it is being done in by the English language (and western?) press on most issues, it's per...

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With the government increasingly convinced that it is being done in by the English language (and western?) press on most issues, it’s perhaps time to have yet another special show on the state-owned, and increasingly more sycophantic, Doordarshan, to give some perspective’ to the lies’ being spewed out on the economy as well. The government has, after all, come in for a lot of flak for its management of the economy and, in recent times, most newspapers have attacked it for forcing the nationalised oil companies to virtually gift it Rs 6,500 crore to meet the burgeoning fiscal deficit. The attacks will probably increase as the budget draws near since it is clear that the government’s inability to curb populism has hit the budget projections for a six. While one may or may not agree on the efficacy of state-sponsored propaganda, particularly when its main medium Doordarshan has little credibility, here are a few tips for whoever does the DD show.

Milking oil companies: Recently, the government gotthe major oil companies, IOC and ONGC, to buy ten percent of each other’s stock and got them both to buy into the Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL). It also wanted GAIL to buy into IOC, but after buying into ONGC, poor GAIL had no more funds to do so. The argument to be used here by the Doordarshan defence team, is that it was merely coincidental that the government got Rs 6,500 crore in the bargain. It should also be pointed out, and this is actually correct, that previous finance ministers, including Manmohan Singh, have taken money out of the oil pool account to bridge the fiscal deficit on a few occasions. So, what’s the big deal even if this government has got some funds this way? Of course if the government also decides to dip into the surplus of the oil pool this year — it hasn’t decided to do so, till now — then the argument should be used a bit cautiously.

The reason for why the government was in favour of the cross-holdings, it should be argued with a straight face, is that globally, youhave fully-integrated oil companies, such as Shell, involved in drilling, gas stations, oil pipelines, the works. The cross-holdings that have been proposed, therefore, are just the first step in this direction by Indian oil companies which today are either separately into drilling, or refining and marketing.

A warning: Don’t delve too deeply though. The question will then be asked as to why the companies haven’t been merged, and half their staff sacked.

Coffers are empty: At once, a political statement as well as a plea for forbearance, it is an argument which, to be frank, has never been used effectively by any other finance minister except Manmohan Singh in his first year. Sinha tried using it in his last budget, and through much of the later months, but it wasn’t very effective. It is a fact, however, that previous Finance Minister P. Chidambaram left with the fiscal deficit overshooting the target by a whopping 31 percent, or just under Rs 21,000 crore. Sinha simply has to work on theargument that runaway deficits don’t necessarily translate into poor governments and worse finance ministers, if necessarily by engaging some of the government’s best spin-doctors.

Bailouts and other farces: Right from the unfortunate protectionist Special Additional Duty (SAD) on imports in his last budget to various bailout packages worked out for various industries, the government has been labelled as one which is out to protect domestic industry, especially certain favourites. The government’s on a good wicket here, since it’s more or less perfected the party line: We’re an Indian government, and it is our job to protect local industry in times of distress. Allowing them to go under is only in the interests of MNCs.

A warning: You’re really skating on thin ice, so don’t overplay it. With the entire financial sector in bad shape because several fat cat Indian industrialists haven’t felt the need to repay their loans, the mood in the country isn’t exactly pro-industry right now. More so,among the middle classes, who’ve over the years seen prices coming down only in areas where the old industrial houses have been more or less wiped out.

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SAD duties: Though the industry united in asking Sinha to retain last year’s SAD protective duty, it’s certain that poor Sinha will come in for more flak if he does retain it. The Chidambaram-did-it-too argument is the one that should be used here as well. Chidambaram, of course, has argued that his special import duties were less onerous, and were to lapse after a specified period. This, however, is a nicety that very few understand, and it’s quite safe to use the argument. The earlier argument of doing all this to protect local industry could also be added to this one. The usual caveats apply.

Only the Congress can rule: This, of course, is the most serious charge levelled against the BJP, and the one that needs to be dealt with most seriously. It’s not exactly budget-related, but will be bandied around the time of the budget, the time onedoes an annual stock-taking of the economy. Going into long details of Congress misrule over the years will be onerous, apart from sounding churlish. The best bet, here, would be to give some credit to the United Front, especially P. Chidambaram. The press, in fact, said he was one of the better reformers, but whatever he did was in the framework of a coalition. So, obviously, good rule is not a monopoly of the Congress. True, it’s not exactly appealing to give credit to your opponents, but then you have to stoop to conquer.

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