Nuclear minuet

On the face of it, the agreement between Manmohan Singh and Hu Jintao to cooperate on civilian nuclear energy is a bold step forward. Given the complex nuclear history that has pitted India against China and Pakistan for so long, promoting atomic energy cooperation between New Delhi and Beijing has been a fool’s errand. Barring one single instance of Chinese supply of enriched uranium for Tarapur reactors in 1993, the nuclear relationship between India and China has been hostile. It was China’s first nuclear test in October 1964, barely a couple of years after the Sino-Indian border clash in 1962, that triggered India’s own atomic weapons programme. Beijing’s assistance to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and missile programmes over the decades for ever altered the balance of power between New Delhi and Islamabad. The Sino-Pak nuclear nexus exposed India to unending terrorism and permanent nuclear blackmail from Pakistan.

This is why civilian nuclear cooperation between India and China marks a paradigm shift in bilateral relations. Nevertheless, we must hold our breath. For, China’s nuclear offer is conditional; the proposed cooperation should be consistent with Beijing’s international obligations. This caveat tells us that Beijing remains ambiguous on supporting the US-led initiative on changing international nuclear rules in favour of India. And India alone. Although three other nuclear weapon powers — Russia, France and the UK — have supported the US initiative, Beijing has so far expressed a number of reservations on the nuclear deal. It has often suggested that the change of rules should also apply to Pakistan, with whom China’s relationship is as close as ‘lips and teeth’.

New Delhi would have liked an explicit endorsement of the Indo-US nuclear deal, and a promise to support it when it comes up for approval at the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group. From the Chinese perspective as well, such an approach would have dramatically elevated the political significance of Hu’s visit. Yet India should not be impatient. Given the scale of policy reversal in Beijing and its diplomatic style of cautious incrementalism, New Delhi should value the breakthrough in the nuclear diplomacy with China. While keeping its fingers crossed, New Delhi should be confident enough to know that Chinese leaders are pragmatic by nature and would not want to stand in the way of the Indo-US deal, which has begun to acquire an unstoppable momentum.