On the borderlines

Both the visits of the PM could turn out to be consequential for India’s bilateral relations with Pakistan and China and our national security strategy as a whole. Dr Singh’s visit to Pakistan would only be the fifth by an Indian prime minister to Pakistan on either bilateral or multilateral business in the last sixty years. Dr Singh’s trip to China would also be the fifth such visit by an Indian prime minister. These rare visits to these neighbouring capitals should become the political driver in finding solutions to long-standing problems with Pakistan and China.

Although strategic optimism about future relations with Pakistan and China has never been in fashion, recent developments do give hope. It is no secret that the negotiations with Pakistan on Jammu and Kashmir have made considerable progress. The good news is not just that India and Pakistan are negotiating for the first time in decades on Jammu and Kashmir. Officials familiar with the process say India and Pakistan are talking about the same set of ideas for the resolution of the J&K problem. But they also underline that the two sides don’t yet have any agreed definitions of these ideas. Much of the current effort is about narrowing the differences between the concepts of ‘self-governance’ and ‘autonomy’, ‘joint management’ and ‘consultative mechanisms’ across the dividing line in J&K, and the nature of the relationship between as well as the sequence of steps leading to substantive reduction of Indian and Pakistani armed forces in the entire state of J&K and an end to violence.

Mukherjee’s brief in Islamabad was not about resolving these differences. It was focused on preventing a misreading of each other’s core assumptions on the peace process. It was also Mukherjee’s task to obtain political reassurances from the highest level in Islamabad that Pakistan is fully aware of India’s concerns over cross-border terrorism. Therefore getting the joint mechanism on terrorism off the ground was of some importance to Mukherjee.

The external affairs minister also emphasised the importance of implementing the earlier political understandings on resolving Siachen and Sir Creek disputes. Pakistan has offered a comprehensive package on Siachen during Mukherjee’s talks, and the survey of Sir Creek has begun this week. Together, they raise the hope that agreements that have been in sight for so long will be quickly clinched. Mukherjee also got assurances from the Pakistan President on the usually neglected humanitarian aspects of the relationship — such as finding and exchanging missing prisoners of war.

Mukherjee’s visit appears to have resulted in a broad understanding on intensifying the peace process in the coming weeks. This will include an acceleration of the back channel negotiations on J&K, initiating the fourth round of the composite dialogue, quick settlements on Siachen and Sir Creek, institutionalising the proposed cooperation on counter-terrorism, deepening nuclear confidence-building measures, and easing travel between the two countries. If the new script unfolds as planned, Dr Singh should start packing his bags for the long overdue visit to Pakistan and prepare to announce with Musharraf some major breakthroughs on J&K.

Unlike the peace process with Pakistan, which is fragile and accident prone, the engagement with China has been more robust. While both sides are pleased with the expanding partnership, they have acknowledged that an early resolution of the boundary dispute is necessary to elevate the relationship to a truly strategic level. The settlement on the 3600 km long border now hangs on finding a way out of the stalemate on the small Tawang tract in Arunachal Pradesh. While China is seeking territorial concessions in Tawang, Dr Singh told Chinese President Hu Jintao last November that India was in no position to make them. As India awaits new ideas from Beijing in this week’s boundary talks, the signals from the meeting between Dr Singh and Wen in the Philippines are encouraging. Together, the two leaders have reportedly urged the two special representatives to “negotiate with greater vigour and innovativeness”.

In the negotiations with both Pakistan and China, the key word must be ‘innovation’. If he chooses to retain his boldness, Dr Singh has the opportunity to liberate India from its enduring two-front problem. The continual and often simultaneous confrontation with Pakistan and China has been the principal strategic problem in India’s national security strategy since Independence. A breakthrough on either or both could unleash India’s diplomatic, political and military energies to play a larger role in the region and the world. More immediately, progress in either of these negotiations could help reinforce advance on the other. Because solutions on both fronts must necessarily finesse traditional notions of territorial sovereignty and create imaginative trans-border institutional mechanisms. For the first time in its history, India is in a position to turn the two-front problem on its head.