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Journalism of Courage
NEW DELHI, May 14: An opinion poll conducted by MDRA for a weekly magazine has predicted major gains for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh with a 10 per cent swing in its favour while the Bharatiya Janata Party and Samajwadi Party are looking at negative swings.
The poll, conducted in the four major regions of the State — Bundelkhand, Avadh, Poorvanchal and Western UP — has predicted that if the Congress were to tie up with the Bahujan Samaj Party, the BJP faces the prospect of being pushed to second place.
It also revealed that the BJP is on the downslide, with a 4.5 per cent negative swing since the 1998 elections. The SP faces a negative swing of nearly six per cent while the BSP would more or less retain its vote share.
According to the poll, the BJP’s decline in UP is linked to Kalyan Singh’s chief ministership. Fifty-seven per cent of even BJP voters wanted him out, while 63 per cent of respondents were unhappy with the performance of his government. Interestingly, 36 per cent believe the Congressand its allies can provide a stable government compared to only 25 per cent for the BJP and its allies. The poll indicated that the manner in which the Vajpayee government was brought down was resented by 58 per cent, but this would not translate into sympathy for the BJP, perhaps due to the anti-incumbency factor.
It showed that over half the Muslim voters who plumped for the SP in the last elections would vote for the Congress this time. An alliance between the Congress and the BSP would push the combine ahead of the BJP, with 35.5 per cent of the popular vote. The BJP, which had 36.5 per cent vote share in the 1998 elections and won 57 seats, had dropped to 32 per cent, according to the poll.
