Past Kargil, post Davos

Then there was Agra when he came ostensibly to talk about peace but if you happened to be lurking on the edge of the Summit, as us hacks were, you sensed that the General was going to somehow spring another unpleasant surprise. This he did when, like some spoilt child, he started stomping around yelling Kashmir, Kashmir, Kashmir. The Pakistani analysis of that failed summit is that Vajpayee was ready to sign a joint statement but ‘hawks’ (by which is meant L K Advani) prevented this. I have to say that it did not seem that way. If you were there it seemed very much as if the one person to blame for the failure was Musharraf.

Then 9/11 happened and the world changed in a way that Islamic fundamentalists and, unfortunately, Muslims in general became international pariahs and the General was forced to renounce jehad as an instrument of foreign policy. But, it seemed from that January 12 speech that he spoke with forked tongue and we in India saw no renunciation. Terrorism continued to be Pakistan’s main export across our borders. So, can we believe that things have really changed this time and that Pakistan’s response to Vajpayee’s offer of peace is sincere?

Well, having watched Musharraf carefully in Davos, where he became a star for being the Islamic world’s most moderate leader, and having listened to his speech to Islamic scholars in Islamabad last week I have to say that he does appear to have changed. Not only does he no longer seem duplicitous when he renounces jehad as something that has brought a bad name to Islam but he seemed completely sincere when he told the Islamic scholars that Pakistan needed to prove to the world that it was no longer a country that promoted terrorism. There is, of course, the nuclear commerce issue where the pardoning of A Q Khan seems like little more than an attempt to get him to shut up about the complicity of the Pakistani army and government in this dangerous trade but then you cannot ask for more than someone can give. And, the General seems to have understood well the grim position Pakistan will find itself in if it continues to encourage nuclear proliferation.

So, can we finally hope for peace on the sub-continent or at least the beginning of a serious peace process? I think we can for two reasons and they are both Pakistani. I believe the General has realised, almost at the cost of his own life, that the real jehad he has to fight is against the Islamic fundamentalists in his own country. The mullahs, military men and misguided youth who have turned Islam into a criminal ideology are almost more dangerous to Pakistan than they are to anyone else. The poison and hatred they have been allowed to preach for more than thirty years has poisoned the fabric of Pakistani society to such an extent that ordinary people have developed a twisted idea of Islam and a sense of grievance off which the Islamic fundamentalists feed.

The result is a society that has become a vast breeding ground for terrorists who, feeling abandoned by their masters, are now turning on them. If they are not stopped they could destroy Pakistan from within. It’s hard to say yet if the General will win the battle against them but what is clear is that he is putting his best into it or they would not have been trying so hard to kill him.

The other reason why I believe that peace is now possible is that Pakistan’s rulers are becoming acutely conscious of how much more prosperous India has become. The opposition parties may not be feeling good about the government’s eager ‘feel good’ campaign but the fact is that when a country’s economy grows at nearly 8 per cent you can see visible change. Pakistanis who come here see it and remember that there was a time, before we began our economic reforms, when Pakistan looked much better than India. Pakistan is faced with a choice between jehad and economic growth and General Musharraf appears to have opted for economic growth.

There remains, though, one big problem. On the Kashmir issue Pakistan needs an exit that will not be seen as a defeat and here if Indian officials behave as high-handedly as they usual do we will go no further down the road to peace. The most arrogant of our high officials handle foreign policy and my experience is that they are hawks to a man especially when it comes to Pakistan.

If they show wisdom, grace and flexibility as negotiations progress, instead of their usual arrogance, there is hope. What an interesting twist of history it would be if peace is delivered to us by a military dictator and a Prime Minister bred on the idea of Akhand Bharat.

Write to tavleensingh@expressindia.com