Pervez under pressure

As the world’s accusing finger turns to Pakistan in the wake of the bombings in London and Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, there may be a tem...

As the world’s accusing finger turns to Pakistan in the wake of the bombings in London and Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, there may be a temptation on India’s part to either gloat over the new pressures that are being brought to bear on Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, or claim political vindication. India should strongly resist that impulse. For the fact is, in national security strategy, there is no room for either sentiment. India must, instead, coolly assess the mounting pressures on Musharraf and his ability, capacity — and willingness — to stamp out the sources of terrorism within Pakistan.

Pakistan’s ambiguities on terrorism

are rooted in the strategy Musharraf adopted after September 11, 2001. While giving a strong commitment to the US on rooting out the Al-Qaeda in Pakistan, Musharraf has sought to protect the Pakistan army’s long-standing political investments in Afghanistan and Kashmir from the global war on terrorism. As a consequence, the Pakistan army has been hesitant to prevent a regrouping of the Taliban in Afghanistan and force its favourite Kashmiri militant groups to shut shop. This inherent contradiction is now catching up with Musharraf, for the war on terrorism cannot be a partial one.

Whatever might be Indian doubts about Musharraf’s intentions, India’s options in Pakistan are rather limited. Whichever way Delhi looks at it, the Musharraf remains India’s best bet for engaging Pakistan — in the short term, at any rate. And, over the longer term, his failure to nudge Pakistan towards political moderation and social modernisation will only add to India’s challenges in the region. Getting Musharraf to finish the job on terrorism would necessarily involve some Indian help. This would make it incumbent upon India to help accelerate the peace process in order to strengthen Musharraf’s hands, without at the same time letting its guard down on cross-border terrorism. Settling problems relating to Siachen and Sir Creek, forcing the pace of trade and economic integration, and pursuing a serious negotiation on Kashmir, are all steps that India must take in its own interest. While Musharraf’s political longevity and effectiveness will increasingly be questioned around the world, India must remain focused like a laser beam on engineering structural changes in Indo-Pak relations.