Pope John Paul II nears death

Some Vatican insiders say that when cardinals come to elect a successor to pope John Paul II, they may prefer to return to a safe Italian ca...

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Some Vatican insiders say that when cardinals come to elect a successor to pope John Paul II, they may prefer to return to a safe Italian candidate, like the vast majority of past pontiffs.

‘‘After John Paul II, the tendency will be to elect an Italian, given centuries of tradition, and that this nationality doesn’t upset anyone, which wouldn’t be the case with an American, a German or a Frenchman,’’ one Vatican source said on condition of anonymity.

‘‘I don’t think the College of Electors will risk electing a foreigner. The Italians are the inner circle. They really know how the curia works,’’ another insider said, referring to the Church’s bureaucracy.

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John Paul II was the first non-Italian in more than 450 years to head the Church. Highly conservative in doctrine and bluntly liberal in his social views, the Pontiff has galvanised the Church.

But many cardinals are thought to want the next Pope to return to the consensus spirit of the second Vatican Ecumenical Council of the 1960s, which was responsible for opening the Church to the modern world.

If the cardinals decide to return to the Italian mold, some Vatican watchers say the front-running candidate could be Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, Archbishop of Milan, the biggest diocese in Europe.

The 71-year-old prelate is favored ‘‘because he is both a pastor, an intellectual and because as someone close to John Paul II he represents continuity, but with new ideas,’’ one source said.

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A key player in the last conclave, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger of Germany, the Vatican’s Doctrinal chief, is again thought to have the most influence on the eventual choice. He is also considered ‘‘Papabile’’ himself.

The man wielding the most power at the moment is Vatican number two Secretary of State Cardinal Angelo Sodano, who like Ratzinger is 77.

However, Sodano’s chances of succeeding the Pope are thought to have been compromised by his very closeness to the Pontiff in an increasingly centralised Papacy.

Since the last conclave, the highly conservative Opus Dei has emerged as a central but widely distrusted force in the Church with several European and Latin American supporters among the electors, such as Spanish Cardinal Julian Herranz.

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Another Italian possible is Venice Patriarch Angelo Scola (63), who was likely to have Opus Dei backing.

The rules say cardinals taking part in the election of a successor to John Paul II must under pain of excommunication ‘‘abstain from any form of pact, agreement, promise or other commitment of any kind which could oblige them to give or deny their vote’’.

No one can actively campaign to succeed the Pope, since the cardinals are meant to determine God’s choice of representative, and doctrine holds that they are guided by the Holy Spirit when they meet in the Sistine Chapel for their momentous vote.

But none of this will not prevent their arguing strongly among themselves for the candidate who best fits their vision of a Church that, being called Catholic, encompasses a wide diversity of views. —PTI