Post-poll Mumbai is a house divided

The educated professionals as well a large section of the urban middle class do not appear to be stakeholders in the democratic process

On January 29, just two days before the commercial capital of the country went to the polls to elect the members of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) — which has a budget of over Rs 12,000 crore — the aging, ailing Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray concluded his speech at an election rally by saying, “I’ll come again… (my) body is tired… age is taking its toll… sambhaloon ghya (take care). (I) will come again after the saffron flag is hoisted.” This was after he had asked Hindus to live like a “mard” (man); countered allegations of corruption in the BMC by claiming that the critics were corrupt, too; criticised the government for not having the guts to build a police station in Muslim-dominated Bhiwandi; lambasted the Congress for providing subsidies for Haj pilgrimage and not for the Kumbh mela; and attributed motives to President Abdul Kalam for taking too long to decide on the mercy plea of Mohammed Afzal, who faces capital punishment for the Parliament attack.

A day earlier, Thackeray had spoken about a “conspiracy” by the Congress to detach Mumbai from Maharashtra (to oust Marathi people from the metropolis) and asked at the election rally at Shivaji Park: “Do you want Mumbai to be severed from Maharashtra?” and the crowds shouted: “Never, never.” He also reminded Mumbaiites about the communal riots and claimed that Hindus would have been butchered if the Shiv Sainiks had not have protected them. Thackeray was accompanied by Hindutva’s poster-boy, Gujarat’s chief minister Narendra Modi, who said that Islamic terrorism would increase if the Congress wrested power.

The whole Sena game plan was to create a fear psychosis in the mind of Hindus, especially that of the Marathi Manoos. On polling day, the general Mumbai turn-out of voters increased only marginally (from 42 to 46 per cent), but the turn-out in the Sena pockets was strong. Consequently, a party written off by its critics after the revolt of Raj Thackeray and Narayan Rane, managed to retain the BMC for a third successive term.

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About half of Mumbai’s population stays in slums, chawls and dilapidated buildings. These are the people who came out to vote, unlike the middle class and the elite. What helped the Sena was that the traditional Dalit and Muslim vote banks of the Congress and the NCP got divided and sub-divided. And, of course, the Sena’s win was also facilitated by the failure of the Congress and the NCP to forge a pre-poll alliance and the Third Front (of Dalit, Muslim and Left parties) to rise above factional tensions. The overconfident but internally divided Congress and the NCP found themselves pitted against the Sena, which had a different game plan. It saw the Sena denying tickets to 58 out of the 63 sitting corporators (apparently to overcome the anti-incumbency factor); asking the local vibhag pramukhs to recommend nominees; managing the alliance with the BJP (to increase its involvement in the poll process); carrying a series of interviews with Thackeray in the party mouthpiece, Saamna, on the eve of the polls to counter allegations made against the party; and campaigning by Thackeray in the run-up to the polls. The allegations of corruption, regionalism, communalism and parochialism were, thus, not only nullified but Thackeray’s remarks against the “traitors” (Rane and Raj) polarised Sena loyalists.

The mandate given to the Sena-BJP in Mumbai (which is considered to be a mini-India) holds out some bitter lessons. The electoral exercise has come to be largely confined to the illiterate, the semi-literate and politicians. The educated professionals, as well a large section of the urban middle class, do not appear to be stakeholders in the democratic process, although they are always critical about the way the city is run. Further, the disparity is increasing between the wannabe global citizens and those struggling to earn a living in a physically and emotionally insecure environment in Mumbai. The battle between the insecure sons of soil and the outsiders is still being waged. The average Marathi Manoos is pitted not only against the influx of the poor from other states, but also the rich and affluent who occupy skyscrapers, drive expensive cars and visit malls. The bomb blasts and the 2005 deluge have made him feel even more insecure.

As for the Congress-NCP, the verdict can be a portent for the future. If they don’t shape up as a working coalition, they will be shipped out in 2009, which will witness both the general elections and the Maharashtra state elections.