Power Play

The focus of the party was Uttar Pradesh. But then UP is not just a state. It catapulted BJP into the hot seat in Delhi, and it snatched power from the Congress.

The Third Force has its eyes firmly fixed on UP, which they hope will put them on the national comeback trail. Mulayam Singh Yadav with his 27 seats in the Lok Sabha is seen as the knight in shining armour to lead them.

Mulayam has even mended fences with V.P. Singh, who was present at the reception. Mulayam called on the Raja of Manda three weeks ago. The two had not met for four years. Not a contender for any executive post because of his health, an ailing Singh is still in a position to lend legitimacy to others. There was a time in 1990, when the former Prime Minister and his chief minister were at loggerheads, very similar to thesituation in which Vajpayee and Kalyan Singh find themselves in today.

The star-studded event confirmed that something is cooking between Mulayam Singh and Kalyan Singh, suspected since the general elections. Both seem to be working to a plan and made no secret of it.

Kalyan Singh may turn out to be another Sharad Pawar, able to deliver a grievous blow to his parent party without getting much in return for himself. It was not surprising to see Mulayam crush Kalyan in a bear hug, not allowing him to leave till the very end, almost casting the former BJP Chief Minister in the role of a host. An unstoppable Kalyan continued to take the mike till the end, virtually daring the BJP leadership to expel him. This would get him the sympathy of Lodhs and possibly even of a section of the Kurmis, and several numerically smaller OBCs.

A backward mobilisation in UP has the makings of a formidable force and would have an appeal for the Muslims, creating problems both for the BJP and the Congress. Sakshi Maharaj, aone time comrade in arms of Kalyan, has made it clear that if Vajpayee can give up the Mandir issue, there is nothing to prevent Kalyan from doing the same.

Small wonder then that Laloo Yadav, who was also present at the wedding, invited Kalyan Singh to Bihar. If the BJP decides to expel its tallest OBC leader, the move has the potential to queer the pitch for the BJP-Samata combine in Bihar. The BJP leaders in Bihar have already admitted that Kalyan’s ouster has had an impact on the OBCs in the state.

All these moves in the country’s heartland are taking place against the backdrop of a rethink inside the Left. The CPI(M) is reviewing its 1964 policy of not joining the government unless it has a controlling stake. It may be ready to undo the "historic blunder" it made in not allowing Jyoti Basu to become Prime Minister in 1996. The Left has all along been a centrepiece of the Third Force. Today the regional parties are scattered but the non-Congress, non-BJP groups still account for almost half thestrength of the 13th Lok Sabha.

There is another straw in the wind. The CPI(M) which had once lent its support to Sonia Gandhi for prime ministership, has, of late, been distancing itself from the Congress. The Congress has demanded the sack of the Tripura government, and Mamata Bannerji has not denied reports of her aligning with the Congress in the panchayat elections due in West Bengal in the new year. The volatile Trinamool Congress leader, to whom the Left is a red rag, is also keeping her options open.

Strange are the ways of Indian politics and Abhishek Yadav’s wedding may determine the next chief minister of Bihar, were the Samata-BJP alliance to win the forthcoming elections. The alliance can run into problems with the Kurmis, who form the mainstay of the Samata Party and are watching carefully the treatment meted out to Kalyan Singh. The BJP may be compelled to declare Nitish Kumar, as the NDA’s chief ministerial candidate, to give the right signals to the Kurmis.

Mulayam’s party was bad newsfor the Congress. Not inviting anyone to a wedding is the prerogative of the host. But to make a point of it is a different matter altogether. Mulayam stated publicly that he had not invited Sonia Gandhi. Yet, and this would have been unthinkable in the days of Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, or even Narasimha Rao and Sitaram Kesri, a large number of Congress leaders attended the reception. They included Madhav Rao Scindia, Manmohan Singh, Ajit Jogi, Jairam Ramesh, Jitendra Prasada, Sitaram Kesri and even P.V. Narasimha Rao. This only underlined the weakening position of Sonia Gandhi in the party. The presence of her loyalists also underscored her compulsions of keeping a channel open to the Samajwadi Party leader, despite the way he made her foreign origins a poll issue.

Paradoxically, Mulayam’s dinner has increased the importance of Mayawati, his bete noire, who was a notable absentee. Given the possibility of new alignments in UP — and most parties anticipate elections in the state in four to five months’time — the Congress will have to bend over backwards to woo her. So might the BJP. She has repeatedly turned down the overtures of the 114-year-old party for the simple reason that it cannot deliver its votes to her, while her vote bank is transferable.

Jayalalitha’s tea party earlier this year brought down a government.

Mulayam’s dinner may give birth to a new political lineup.